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Title: Welcome to SELF-RULE Author: Rafael Popper Last modified by: Rafael Popper Created Date: 3/12/2006 4:17:18 AM Document presentation format – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Welcome%20to%20SELF-RULE

EULAKS FLACSO, México 2008
Core elements of Foresight in Europe and Latin
America Rafael Popper rafael.popper_at_manchester.a
c.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation
Research, University of Manchester
About the Manchester Institute of Innovation
Research (PREST)
  • Our Research is broadly grouped into five key
    themes that reflect both strengths of the
    Institute and areas of potential growth
  • Technology strategy and innovation management,
    covering a wide range of topics relating to RD,
    innovation strategy, internationalisation and
    tacit knowledge. There is particular interest in
    themes such as innovation in defence and security
    and in medical innovation
  • Services and organisational innovation reflecting
    Manchester's outstanding track record of research
    in this field. This covers a range of topics
    including measurement, management and outsourcing
  • Science, innovation policy and strategic
    intelligence draws on the extensive and
    long-standing reputation of Manchester in this
    field and developments in key areas such as
    foresight and evaluation of technology programmes
  • Innovation and sustainability is a rapidly
    growing area of activity which covers
    environmental management, sustainable consumption
    and recycling. There is close collaboration with
    colleagues at the Tyndall Centre in Manchester
  • Innovation, innovation systems and economic
    development covering familiar issues such as
    innovation and national and regional development
    as well as important emerging themes such as
    innovation as a sustainable route out of poverty
    in developing economies. Manchester has a
    particularly outstanding record in the
    understanding of the dynamics of innovation
    through evolutionary approaches.

  • Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for
    the development and implementation of research
    and innovation policy.
  • The main focus of activity has been at national
    level as governments have sought to
  • set priorities
  • build networks between science and industry
  • change the administrative culture research
    systems and
  • encompass structured debates with wider
    participation leading to the creation of common

Evolution of Foresight Programmes/Exercises
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Rationale 1 Directing or prioritising investment
in STI (Setting general research directions by
identifying previously unknown opportunities)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • Informing funding and investment priorities,
    including direct prioritisation exercises
  • Eliciting the research and innovation agenda
    within a previously defined field
  • Reorienting the science and innovation system to
    match national needs, particularly in the case of
    transition economies
  • Helping to benchmark the national science and
    innovation system in terms of areas of strength
    and weakness, and to identify competitive threats
    and collaborative opportunities
  • Raising the profile of science and innovation in
    government as means of attracting investment.

Rationale 2 Building new networks and linkages
around a common vision
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • Building networks and strengthening communities
    around shared problems (especially where work on
    these problems has been compartmentalised and is
    lacking a common language)
  • Building trust between participants unused to
    working together
  • Aiding collaboration across administrative and
    epistemic boundaries
  • Highlighting interdisciplinary opportunities.

Rationale 3 Extending the breadth of knowledge
and visions in relation to the future
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • Increasing understanding and changing mindsets,
    especially about future opportunities and
  • Providing anticipatory intelligence to system
    actors as to the main directions, agents, and
    rapidity of change
  • Building visions of the future that can help
    actors recognise more or less desirable paths of
    development and the choices that help determine

Rationale 4 Bringing new actors into the
strategic debate
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • Increasing the number and involvement of system
    actors in decision-making, both to access a wider
    pool of knowledge and to achieve more democratic
    legitimacy in the policy process
  • Extending the range of types of actor
    participating in decision-making relating to
    science, technology and innovation issues.

Rationale 5 Improving policy-making and strategy
formation in areas where science and innovation
play a significant role
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • Informing policy and public debates in these
  • Improve policy implementation by enabling
    informed buy-in to decision-making processes
    (for example, so that participants in foresight
    activities are able to use the understanding
    acquired here to argue the case for change, and
    to bring it to bear in more specialised areas
    than the Programme as a whole has been able to).

Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Foresight should be carefully planned (Popper,
Step 5 evaluating
Step 4 shaping the future through strategic
Step 3 generating (new) knowledge through the
exploration, analysis and anticipation of
possible futures
Step 2 mobilising and engaging key stakeholders
Step 1 scanning and understanding major ST
developments, trends and issues
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Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Mapping Sample
Over 1600 cases
R. Popper (2008)
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Global foresight practices (1/3)
Global foresight practices (2/3)
Guides Handbooks
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • The Handbook of Technology Foresight Concepts
    and Practice (2008)
  • Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure
    Foresight (2007)
  • Global Foresight Outlook (2007)
  • http//prest.mbs.ac.uk/foresight/rif_guide.pdf
  • http//prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf
  • The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook
  • Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated
    into EU languages)

Foresight in UNIDO TFLAC
  • EU
  • TFP created in 1999
  • Main actors
  • Governmental agencies and departments
  • Main objectives
  • Foresight culture
  • High-level political awareness
  • Industrial technological development
  • Main activities
  • Capacity building / Training courses
  • Seminars / conferences
  • Sectoral / industrial exercises
  • Publications
  • Main countries
  • Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru,
    Uruguay, Venezuela

Foresight in Mexico
  • Main actors
  • Javier Barros Sierra Foundation
  • College of Mexico
  • Autonomous University of Mexico
  • Technological Institute of Monterrey
  • Foresight outlook
  • In the 1980s Mexico led the first Latin
    initiative to promote the integration of
    foresight efforts in many countries, the
    so-called Technological Prospective for Latin
    America (TEPLA), which helped to translate
    selected European foresight experiences into
  • In 1990s the country showed a decline in regional
  • Since 2000 foresight work has begun to recover.
  • Current activities are mainly related to
    entrepreneurial foresight and efforts of public
    institutions focused on education, science and
  • There is also a Mexican node of the Millennium
    Project, a chapter of the World Futures Society
    (WFS) and an online journal for prospective
    studies which has provided a space for
    disseminating experiences in Spanish
  • capacity-building and teaching programmes
  • Whilst Mexico has a long tradition in forecasting
    and futures research, it has yet to organise a
    fully-fledged national foresight programme.

Foresight in Argentina
  • EU
  • TFP created in 2000
  • Main actors
  • Secretary for Science Technology - SECyT
  • UNIDO link
  • Main activities
  • Learning from international experiences
  • diagnostic studies in 3 sectors Biotechnology,
    Chemical and Textile industries
  • Technology Foresight Observatory (created in 2000
    but frozen in 2001)
  • (most recent) Strategic Middle Term Plan of STI
    for 2015 (not called foresight!)
  • started in October 2003, completed in 2005
  • coordinated by the National Observatory of
    Science, Technology and Productive Innovation
  • Panels, Survey, workshops, prioritisation of key
  • Over 4,000 people involved
  • Main goals
  • To strengthen enlarge the National System of
  • To improve quality, efficiency pertinence of
    ST activities
  • To increase ST expenditure to 1 of the GDP in
  • To increase participation of the private sector
    to the 0.50 of the GDP

Foresight in Chile
  • EU
  • TFP Created in 2001
  • Main actor
  • Ministry of Economy
  • Main objectives
  • discovery pathways toward a desired future
  • identification of strategies or action plan for
    its achievement.
  • Main methods
  • Brainstorming
  • Delphi
  • Main activities
  • e-ducation industry ICT applied to Education
  • aquaculture industry
  • wine production and exports
  • biotechnology applied to fruits and horticulture
  • biotechnology applied to forest industry
  • the Chilean software industry.

Foresight in Cuba
  • Main actor
  • Cuban Observatory of Science and Technology
  • Main objectives
  • Monitoring emerging technologies
  • developing foresight exercises in key strategic
  • developing human capital with proactive attitudes
    as opposed to reactive
  • Main methods
  • Technology watch (trends disruptions)
  • Brainstorming
  • Delphi
  • Main activities
  • Health
  • Biotechnology
  • Information technology

Foresight in Peru
  • EU
  • Main actors
  • UNIDO link since 2001
  • CONCYTEC since 2002
  • Consortium Prospective Peru (CPP) since 2002
  • Main objectives
  • Build foresight capabilities
  • Support exercises in strategic sectors (mainly
  • Strengthen links with international foresight
  • Main methods
  • Brainstorming
  • SWOT
  • Scenarios
  • Cross-impact
  • Main activities
  • textile and clothing, biotechnology and
    agriculture, sea products and water, new
    materials, energy, housing and construction and

Foresight in Uruguay
  • Main actors
  • Presidency
  • UNIDO link (2000)
  • Various ministries
  • Main objectives
  • competitive industrialization of the country
  • integration of knowledge in the value chain
  • Main methods
  • Brainstorming
  • Surveys
  • Panels
  • Delphi
  • Scenarios recommendations
  • Main activities
  • Energy
  • Transport and logistic
  • Biotechnology agriculture

Foresight in Venezuela
  • EU
  • Main actors
  • UNIDO link
  • UCV, UNEFM, UNEFA, UNESR, 4-sight-group
  • Main objectives
  • Building capabilities foresight culture
    execute exercises
  • Promote endogenous development, social inclusion
    technological sovereignty
  • Main methods
  • Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, focus
    groups, community dialog, Interviews
  • Main activities
  • Yucca in Gondola Shared Vision of the Future of
    the Gas Industry Scenarios for the
    Agro-biotechnological Development of the Country
    and Foresight on Biotechnology for Agro-Food
    Security by 2011
  • National Plan for STI 2005-2030
  • Main actors
  • Main objectives
  • To build an evaluation promotion system for new
  • To relate STI results to the needs of most
    excluded people
  • To promote a selective assimilation of
  • To promote pertinent technological developments

Foresight in Brazil
  • EU
  • Main actors
  • UNIDO link (with MDIC)
  • UFRJ, UNICAMP, USP, among others
  • CGEE
  • Main objective
  • To inform both government and industry about
    possible impacts of ST trends
  • Main methods
  • Brainstorming
  • Prioritisation workshops and surveys
  • Delphi
  • Scenarios cross-impact
  • Main activities
  • Brazil 2020
  • NAE / Brazil 3 Tempos
  • CGEE activities

Brazil PROSPECTAR Programme
  • Main actors
  • MST, National Council of ST (CCT) Anchor
    Institutions, CNPq, Fund for National Studies
    Research (FINEP) a team from the Centre of
    Advanced Studies and Systems of Recife (CESAR)
  • Main objectives
  • To examine macro-issues related to STI with a
    focus on technological trends and inform key
    stakeholders about the future impacts of trends
  • Main methods
  • Brainstorming prioritisation
  • Delphi
  • Main areas
  • Agriculture Health Energy Telecommunications
    and IT Materials Hydro resources Aeronautics
    and Space
  • Main remarks
  • The massive mobilisation of the scientific
    community (gt10k people)
  • The programme raised awareness of the challenges
    Brazil was facing as a federation raised the
    importance of Foresight in the scientific

Brazil The BTFP Programme
  • Main actors
  • Secretary of Industrial Technology (STI) at the
    Ministry of Industry, Development and Commerce
  • UNIDO, EMBRAPA Anchor institutions
  • Main objective
  • To contribute to development of the productive
  • Main methods
  • Foresight techniques applied to productive chain
  • modelling segmentation performance indicators
    critical factors future events Delphi survey
    scenarios cross-impacts (optional)
  • Main areas
  • Civil construction Textiles clothing
    Plastics and Wood furniture
  • Main remarks
  • The methodological approach proved to be useful
    to understand the complexity of long-term
    planning on issues concerning a large variety of
    market segments and stakeholders (from raw
    material producers to final consumers)

Brazil NAE activities
  • EU
  • Main actor
  • Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE) of the
    Presidency of the Republic
  • Main objective
  • to define national objectives based on a
    large-scale dialog between different stakeholders
    of society
  • Main methods
  • Trends issues. 600 experts looking for
    Megatrends in 7 dimensions Institutional
    Economic Socio-cultural Territorial Knowledge
    Environment and Global
  • From 50 strategic themes to strategic goals
  • Strategic Focus (cross-impact Delphi
  • Main projects
  • Improving the quality of basic and primary
  • Main remarks
  • Results are still being processed but the
    response rate has been very satisfactory (around
    38,000 participants)

Brazil CGEE activities
  • EU
  • Main actors
  • CGEE sponsors other relevant stakeholders
  • Main objective
  • To support and execute foresight activities in
  • To raise awareness of about the future of key
  • Main methods
  • Brainstorming surveys
  • Workshops
  • Delphi
  • Main projects
  • Energy, Biofuel, Biotechnology, Nanotechnology,
    Climate Change, and Water Resources, among others
  • Main remarks
  • Companion-system
  • Innovation portal
  • Delphi system

Foresight in Colombia
  • EU
  • Main actors
  • Colciencias, National Centre of Productivity
    (CNP), SENA
  • UNIVALLE, Externado
  • CAF, CAB, UNIDO (incubation)
  • Main objectives
  • Building capabilities foresight culture
  • Fund and execute exercises
  • Main methods
  • Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, Delphi,
  • Scenarios recommendations
  • Main activities
  • Electric Sector
  • Food Packaging Sector
  • Lacteous Sector
  • Export potential of the health sector cluster in
    the Cauca Valley
  • Agro-industrial productive chain of Fique in
  • Making Cartagena a tourist destiny
  • Horticulture productive chain of the Bogotá
  • Among others

Colombian Foresight Programme (1st Cycle)
  • EU

Colombian Foresight Programme (2nd Cycle)
  • EU

Latin Foresight Panorama (Experiences and
  • EU

Country State of Evolution Level Focus Objectives
Argentina A/I R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act-P
Bolivia Im Se F/s A
Brazil A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Chile Le N, R, Se F/s, P A, Act, Act-P
Colombia A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Cuba A/I R, Se, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Ecuador Le Se, Ac F/s A
Panama Im Se F/s A
Paraguay Im Se F/s A
Peru Le N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne
Mexico A/I N, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne
Uruguay Le N,R, Se F/s A
Venezuela A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
State of evolution position of
foresight/future activities in the country along
a spectrum from imitation Im, via learning
Le to adaptation/innovation A/I Level
national N, regional R, sectoral Se,
organizational O, academic Ac Focus
foresight F/s, policy action P Objectives
anticipation A, networking Ne, action
achieved Act, action proposed Act-P
Countries with 1 or more foresight projects with
With whom?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Monitoring Foresight Cooperation
Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Knowledge Transfer
Training / Capacities Basic Intermediate Advanced
Advice / Support Process Design Methodology
support Process Management
Sustainable Partnership
Joint Research LA funded EU funded EU-LA funded
Shared Platforms Knowledge base Infrastructures In
Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Advice and Support
  • For example, in Colombia
  • Public sector
  • Colciencias, SENA, DNP, Ministries, etc.
  • Private sector
  • Chambers of Commerce
  • Public enterprises
  • Academic sector
  • UNIVALLE, National University, etc.

Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Training / Capacities
  • Capacities building activities
  • On demand
  • National Foresight Programmes, Research
    Centres, Etc.
  • Mobility Programmes
  • Successful one-off experience
  • Post-graduate programmes
  • Under construction

Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • Joint research projects
  • Methodological standards (CO-UK)
  • Mapping/monitoring foresight
  • Evaluation of foresight experiences
  • Colombian Foresight Evaluation (CO-UK)

Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Shared Platforms
  • Knowledge base
  • Publications
  • Books
  • Chapters
  • Papers
  • Reports
  • Case studies / data bank
  • Case studies repository ???

So, what?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Cooperation Opportunities(FP7 Calls)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • Activity 8.3. Major trends in society and their
  • Area 8.3.2. Societal trends and lifestyles -
    SSH-2009-3.2.2. Social platform on research for
    families and family policies EUR 1.5M (support
  • Activity 8.4. Europe in the world
  • Area 8.4.1. Interactions and interdependences
    between world regions and their implications -
    SSH-2009-4.1.2 Geopolitics and the role of Europe
    in a changing world EUR 3M (coordinating action)

Cooperation Opportunities(FP7 Calls)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • Activity 8.7. Foresight activities
  • Area 8.7.5. Mutual learning and co-operation -
    SSH-2009-7.5.1 - Consolidating the information
    system for foresight EUR 720.000 Euros

Coordination and support actions (coordinating
actions) At least 3 independent legal entities,
each of which is established in a MS or AC, and
no two of which are established in the same MS or
Coordination and support actions (support
actions) At least 1 legal entity
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
  • Rafael Popper
  • Rafael.Popper_at_manchester.ac.uk

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