Welcome%20to%20SELF-RULE

1
EULAKS FLACSO, México 2008
Core elements of Foresight in Europe and Latin
America Rafael Popper rafael.popper_at_manchester.a
c.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation
Research, University of Manchester
2
About the Manchester Institute of Innovation
Research (PREST)

• Our Research is broadly grouped into five key
  themes that reflect both strengths of the
  Institute and areas of potential growth
• Technology strategy and innovation management,
  covering a wide range of topics relating to RD,
  innovation strategy, internationalisation and
  tacit knowledge. There is particular interest in
  themes such as innovation in defence and security
  and in medical innovation
• Services and organisational innovation reflecting
  Manchester's outstanding track record of research
  in this field. This covers a range of topics
  including measurement, management and outsourcing
  
• Science, innovation policy and strategic
  intelligence draws on the extensive and
  long-standing reputation of Manchester in this
  field and developments in key areas such as
  foresight and evaluation of technology programmes
  
• Innovation and sustainability is a rapidly
  growing area of activity which covers
  environmental management, sustainable consumption
  and recycling. There is close collaboration with
  colleagues at the Tyndall Centre in Manchester
• Innovation, innovation systems and economic
  development covering familiar issues such as
  innovation and national and regional development
  as well as important emerging themes such as
  innovation as a sustainable route out of poverty
  in developing economies. Manchester has a
  particularly outstanding record in the
  understanding of the dynamics of innovation
  through evolutionary approaches.

3
http//www.e-elgar.co.uk/Bookentry_Main.lasso?id
3977

• Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for
  the development and implementation of research
  and innovation policy.
• The main focus of activity has been at national
  level as governments have sought to
• set priorities
• build networks between science and industry
• change the administrative culture research
  systems and
• encompass structured debates with wider
  participation leading to the creation of common
  visions.

4
Pro.
F
Pol.
Par.
5
Evolution of Foresight Programmes/Exercises
6
Why?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
7
Rationale 1 Directing or prioritising investment
in STI (Setting general research directions by
identifying previously unknown opportunities)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

• Informing funding and investment priorities,
  including direct prioritisation exercises
• Eliciting the research and innovation agenda
  within a previously defined field
• Reorienting the science and innovation system to
  match national needs, particularly in the case of
  transition economies
• Helping to benchmark the national science and
  innovation system in terms of areas of strength
  and weakness, and to identify competitive threats
  and collaborative opportunities
• Raising the profile of science and innovation in
  government as means of attracting investment.

8
Rationale 2 Building new networks and linkages
around a common vision
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

• Building networks and strengthening communities
  around shared problems (especially where work on
  these problems has been compartmentalised and is
  lacking a common language)
• Building trust between participants unused to
  working together
• Aiding collaboration across administrative and
  epistemic boundaries
• Highlighting interdisciplinary opportunities.

9
Rationale 3 Extending the breadth of knowledge
and visions in relation to the future
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

• Increasing understanding and changing mindsets,
  especially about future opportunities and
  challenges
• Providing anticipatory intelligence to system
  actors as to the main directions, agents, and
  rapidity of change
• Building visions of the future that can help
  actors recognise more or less desirable paths of
  development and the choices that help determine
  these.

10
Rationale 4 Bringing new actors into the
strategic debate
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

• Increasing the number and involvement of system
  actors in decision-making, both to access a wider
  pool of knowledge and to achieve more democratic
  legitimacy in the policy process
• Extending the range of types of actor
  participating in decision-making relating to
  science, technology and innovation issues.

11
Rationale 5 Improving policy-making and strategy
formation in areas where science and innovation
play a significant role
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

• Informing policy and public debates in these
  areas
• Improve policy implementation by enabling
  informed buy-in to decision-making processes
  (for example, so that participants in foresight
  activities are able to use the understanding
  acquired here to argue the case for change, and
  to bring it to bear in more specialised areas
  than the Programme as a whole has been able to).

12
How?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
13
Foresight should be carefully planned (Popper,
2008)
Step 5 evaluating
KNOWLEDGE
Step 4 shaping the future through strategic
planning
Step 3 generating (new) knowledge through the
exploration, analysis and anticipation of
possible futures
Step 2 mobilising and engaging key stakeholders
Step 1 scanning and understanding major ST
developments, trends and issues
14
(No Transcript)
15
(No Transcript)
16
Who?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
17
http//prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/efmn_global_foresight_
outlook_gfo_2007.pdf
Mapping Sample
Over 1600 cases
R. Popper (2008)
18
(No Transcript)
19
Global foresight practices (1/3)
20
Global foresight practices (2/3)
21
Guides Handbooks
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

• The Handbook of Technology Foresight Concepts
  and Practice (2008)
• Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure
  Foresight (2007)
• Global Foresight Outlook (2007)
• http//prest.mbs.ac.uk/foresight/rif_guide.pdf
  
• http//prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf
• The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook
• Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated
  into EU languages)

22
Foresight in UNIDO TFLAC

• EU

• TFP created in 1999
• Main actors
• UNIDO
• Governmental agencies and departments
• Main objectives
• Foresight culture
• High-level political awareness
• Industrial technological development
• Main activities
• Capacity building / Training courses
• Seminars / conferences
• Sectoral / industrial exercises
• Publications
• Main countries
• Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru,
  Uruguay, Venezuela

23
Foresight in Mexico

• Main actors
• Javier Barros Sierra Foundation
• College of Mexico
• Autonomous University of Mexico
• Technological Institute of Monterrey
• Foresight outlook
• In the 1980s Mexico led the first Latin
  initiative to promote the integration of
  foresight efforts in many countries, the
  so-called Technological Prospective for Latin
  America (TEPLA), which helped to translate
  selected European foresight experiences into
  Spanish.
• In 1990s the country showed a decline in regional
  leadership
• Since 2000 foresight work has begun to recover.
• Current activities are mainly related to
  entrepreneurial foresight and efforts of public
  institutions focused on education, science and
  technology.
• There is also a Mexican node of the Millennium
  Project, a chapter of the World Futures Society
  (WFS) and an online journal for prospective
  studies which has provided a space for
  disseminating experiences in Spanish
• capacity-building and teaching programmes
• Whilst Mexico has a long tradition in forecasting
  and futures research, it has yet to organise a
  fully-fledged national foresight programme.

24
Foresight in Argentina

• EU

• TFP created in 2000
• Main actors
• Secretary for Science Technology - SECyT
• UNIDO link
• Main activities
• Learning from international experiences
• diagnostic studies in 3 sectors Biotechnology,
  Chemical and Textile industries
• Technology Foresight Observatory (created in 2000
  but frozen in 2001)
• (most recent) Strategic Middle Term Plan of STI
  for 2015 (not called foresight!)
• started in October 2003, completed in 2005
• coordinated by the National Observatory of
  Science, Technology and Productive Innovation
  (ONCTIP)
• Panels, Survey, workshops, prioritisation of key
  areas
• Over 4,000 people involved
• Main goals
• To strengthen enlarge the National System of
  STI
• To improve quality, efficiency pertinence of
  ST activities
• To increase ST expenditure to 1 of the GDP in
  2007
• To increase participation of the private sector
  to the 0.50 of the GDP

25
Foresight in Chile

• EU

• TFP Created in 2001
• Main actor
• Ministry of Economy
• Main objectives
• discovery pathways toward a desired future
• identification of strategies or action plan for
  its achievement.
• Main methods
• Brainstorming
• Delphi
• Main activities
• e-ducation industry ICT applied to Education
• aquaculture industry
• wine production and exports
• biotechnology applied to fruits and horticulture
• biotechnology applied to forest industry
• the Chilean software industry.

26
Foresight in Cuba

• Main actor
• Cuban Observatory of Science and Technology
  (OCCyT)
• Main objectives
• Monitoring emerging technologies
• developing foresight exercises in key strategic
  sectors
• developing human capital with proactive attitudes
  as opposed to reactive
• Main methods
• Technology watch (trends disruptions)
• Brainstorming
• Delphi
• Main activities
• Health
• Biotechnology
• Information technology

27
Foresight in Peru

• EU

• Main actors
• UNIDO link since 2001
• CONCYTEC since 2002
• Consortium Prospective Peru (CPP) since 2002
• Main objectives
• Build foresight capabilities
• Support exercises in strategic sectors (mainly
  pilots!)
• Strengthen links with international foresight
  practitioners
• Main methods
• Brainstorming
• SWOT
• Scenarios
• Cross-impact
• Main activities
• textile and clothing, biotechnology and
  agriculture, sea products and water, new
  materials, energy, housing and construction and
  tourism

28
Foresight in Uruguay

• Main actors
• Presidency
• UNIDO link (2000)
• Various ministries
• Main objectives
• competitive industrialization of the country
• integration of knowledge in the value chain
• Main methods
• Brainstorming
• Surveys
• Panels
• Delphi
• Scenarios recommendations
• Main activities
• Energy
• Transport and logistic
• Biotechnology agriculture

29
Foresight in Venezuela

• EU

• Main actors
• MCT, CENDES, IESA
• UNIDO link
• UCV, UNEFM, UNEFA, UNESR, 4-sight-group
• Main objectives
• Building capabilities foresight culture
  execute exercises
• Promote endogenous development, social inclusion
  technological sovereignty
• Main methods
• Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, focus
  groups, community dialog, Interviews
• Main activities
• Yucca in Gondola Shared Vision of the Future of
  the Gas Industry Scenarios for the
  Agro-biotechnological Development of the Country
  and Foresight on Biotechnology for Agro-Food
  Security by 2011
• National Plan for STI 2005-2030
• Main actors
• FONACYT, IVIC, INTEVEP, CDCH, MCT, FUNDACITES,
  universities
• Main objectives
• To build an evaluation promotion system for new
  stakeholders
• To relate STI results to the needs of most
  excluded people
• To promote a selective assimilation of
  technologies
• To promote pertinent technological developments

30
Foresight in Brazil

• EU

• Main actors
• MST, MDIC, NAE, FINEP, CNPq
• UNIDO link (with MDIC)
• UFRJ, UNICAMP, USP, among others
• CGEE
• Main objective
• To inform both government and industry about
  possible impacts of ST trends
• Main methods
• Brainstorming
• Prioritisation workshops and surveys
• Delphi
• Scenarios cross-impact
• Main activities
• Brazil 2020
• MST / PROSPECTAR
• MDIC / BTFP
• NAE / Brazil 3 Tempos
• CGEE activities

31
Brazil PROSPECTAR Programme

• Main actors
• MST, National Council of ST (CCT) Anchor
  Institutions, CNPq, Fund for National Studies
  Research (FINEP) a team from the Centre of
  Advanced Studies and Systems of Recife (CESAR)
• Main objectives
• To examine macro-issues related to STI with a
  focus on technological trends and inform key
  stakeholders about the future impacts of trends
• Main methods
• Brainstorming prioritisation
• Delphi
• Main areas
• Agriculture Health Energy Telecommunications
  and IT Materials Hydro resources Aeronautics
  and Space
• Main remarks
• The massive mobilisation of the scientific
  community (gt10k people)
• The programme raised awareness of the challenges
  Brazil was facing as a federation raised the
  importance of Foresight in the scientific
  community

32
Brazil The BTFP Programme

• Main actors
• Secretary of Industrial Technology (STI) at the
  Ministry of Industry, Development and Commerce
  (MIDC)
• UNIDO, EMBRAPA Anchor institutions
• Main objective
• To contribute to development of the productive
  sector
• Main methods
• Foresight techniques applied to productive chain
  methodology
• modelling segmentation performance indicators
  critical factors future events Delphi survey
  scenarios cross-impacts (optional)
• Main areas
• Civil construction Textiles clothing
  Plastics and Wood furniture
• Main remarks
• The methodological approach proved to be useful
  to understand the complexity of long-term
  planning on issues concerning a large variety of
  market segments and stakeholders (from raw
  material producers to final consumers)

33
Brazil NAE activities

• EU

• Main actor
• Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE) of the
  Presidency of the Republic
• Main objective
• to define national objectives based on a
  large-scale dialog between different stakeholders
  of society
• Main methods
• Trends issues. 600 experts looking for
  Megatrends in 7 dimensions Institutional
  Economic Socio-cultural Territorial Knowledge
  Environment and Global
• From 50 strategic themes to strategic goals
  objectives
• Strategic Focus (cross-impact Delphi
  Scenarios)
• Main projects
• Improving the quality of basic and primary
  education
• Main remarks
• Results are still being processed but the
  response rate has been very satisfactory (around
  38,000 participants)

34
Brazil CGEE activities

• EU

• Main actors
• CGEE sponsors other relevant stakeholders
• Main objective
• To support and execute foresight activities in
  Brazil
• To raise awareness of about the future of key
  sectors
• Main methods
• Brainstorming surveys
• Workshops
• Delphi
• Main projects
• Energy, Biofuel, Biotechnology, Nanotechnology,
  Climate Change, and Water Resources, among others
• Main remarks
• Companion-system
• Innovation portal
• Delphi system

35
Foresight in Colombia

• EU

• Main actors
• Colciencias, National Centre of Productivity
  (CNP), SENA
• UNIVALLE, Externado
• CAF, CAB, UNIDO (incubation)
• Main objectives
• Building capabilities foresight culture
• Fund and execute exercises
• Main methods
• Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, Delphi,
  cross-impact
• Scenarios recommendations
• Main activities
• Electric Sector
• Food Packaging Sector
• Lacteous Sector
• Export potential of the health sector cluster in
  the Cauca Valley
• Agro-industrial productive chain of Fique in
  Santander
• Making Cartagena a tourist destiny
• Horticulture productive chain of the Bogotá
  plains
• Among others

36
Colombian Foresight Programme (1st Cycle)

• EU

37
Colombian Foresight Programme (2nd Cycle)

• EU

38
Latin Foresight Panorama (Experiences and
Cooperation)

• EU

Country State of Evolution Level Focus Objectives
Argentina A/I R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act-P
Bolivia Im Se F/s A
Brazil A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Chile Le N, R, Se F/s, P A, Act, Act-P
Colombia A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Cuba A/I R, Se, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Ecuador Le Se, Ac F/s A
Panama Im Se F/s A
Paraguay Im Se F/s A
Peru Le N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne
Mexico A/I N, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne
Uruguay Le N,R, Se F/s A
Venezuela A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
State of evolution position of
foresight/future activities in the country along
a spectrum from imitation Im, via learning
Le to adaptation/innovation A/I Level
national N, regional R, sectoral Se,
organizational O, academic Ac Focus
foresight F/s, policy action P Objectives
anticipation A, networking Ne, action
achieved Act, action proposed Act-P
Countries with 1 or more foresight projects with
Europe
39
With whom?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
40
Monitoring Foresight Cooperation
41
Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Knowledge Transfer
Training / Capacities Basic Intermediate Advanced
Post-graduate
Advice / Support Process Design Methodology
support Process Management
Sustainable Partnership
Joint Research LA funded EU funded EU-LA funded
Shared Platforms Knowledge base Infrastructures In
struments
42
Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Advice and Support

• For example, in Colombia
• Public sector
• Colciencias, SENA, DNP, Ministries, etc.
• Private sector
• Chambers of Commerce
• Public enterprises
• Academic sector
• UNIVALLE, National University, etc.

43
Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Training / Capacities

• Capacities building activities
• On demand
• National Foresight Programmes, Research
  Centres, Etc.
• Mobility Programmes
• Successful one-off experience
• SELF-RULE
• Post-graduate programmes
• Under construction

44
Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Research

• Joint research projects
• Methodological standards (CO-UK)
• Mapping/monitoring foresight
• SELF-RULE and EFMN (EU-LA)
• Evaluation of foresight experiences
• Colombian Foresight Evaluation (CO-UK)

45
Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Shared Platforms

• Knowledge base
• Publications
• Books
• Chapters
• Papers
• Reports
• Case studies / data bank
• Case studies repository ???

46
So, what?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
47
Cooperation Opportunities(FP7 Calls)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

• Activity 8.3. Major trends in society and their
  implications
• Area 8.3.2. Societal trends and lifestyles -
  SSH-2009-3.2.2. Social platform on research for
  families and family policies EUR 1.5M (support
  action)
• Activity 8.4. Europe in the world
• Area 8.4.1. Interactions and interdependences
  between world regions and their implications -
  SSH-2009-4.1.2 Geopolitics and the role of Europe
  in a changing world EUR 3M (coordinating action)

48
Cooperation Opportunities(FP7 Calls)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

• Activity 8.7. Foresight activities
• Area 8.7.5. Mutual learning and co-operation -
  SSH-2009-7.5.1 - Consolidating the information
  system for foresight EUR 720.000 Euros

Coordination and support actions (coordinating
actions) At least 3 independent legal entities,
each of which is established in a MS or AC, and
no two of which are established in the same MS or
AC.
Coordination and support actions (support
actions) At least 1 legal entity
49
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

• Rafael Popper
• Rafael.Popper_at_manchester.ac.uk

Gracias!