Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in Washington

1
Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in
Washington

• Part 1 Sea Level Rise
• by Robert S. Cole
• The Evergreen State College

2
Impacts of Global Climate Change on Tribes in
Washington (Part 1)Abstract

• This case study is an introduction to the
  potential impacts of global climate change on
  some of the Tribal lands in Washington State. It
  explores specifically the impacts of sea level
  rise on Tribal lands in coastal regions, or in
  the Puget sound region. The case is based upon
  the scientific evidence for global climate
  change, and the measured sea level rise in
  Seattle over the past century. The case examines
  the effects of winter storm surges coupled with
  high tides, as well as the increased rate of
  sever winter storms and associated flooding in
  river and estuary regions. This case is designed
  as a clicker case to be used in conjunction
  with interrupted lecture or interrupted workshop
  formats of presentation.

3

• At a meeting of Tribal, federal, state, and
  academic people interested the impacts of global
  climate change on sea level rise in Washington
  state, several presenters showed some slides of
  likely scenarios. This case examines some of the
  issues that are of direct interest to anyone
  living along coastal regions, or along the
  shoreline of Puget Sound
• Impact of sea level rise
• Impact of winter storms on tidal levels

4
CQ 1 Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
scientific evidence for global climate change?

• There is clear scientific evidence that humans
  are significantly affecting the Earths climate.
• There is no scientific evidence that the climate
  of the earth is changing.
• There is some evidence for climate change, but
  absolutely no evidence that human activities are
  affecting the change.
• There is some evidence that humans are having an
  effect on climate.

4
5
CQ 2 Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
consequences for humans of global climate change?

1. The effects of climate change, if any, will be
   small compared to natural changes that have
   occurred before.
2. The effects of climate change will be minor
   except in poor, less developed countries, or in
   remote regions.
3. Climate change will significantly affect many
   countries.
4. The effects of climate change will be
   catastrophic around the world.

5
6
Most of the observed increase in globally
averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
Discernible human influences now extend to other
aspects of climate, including ocean warming,
continental-average temperatures, temperature
extremes and wind patterns. Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, 2007
7
2500 expert scientific reviewers 800
contributing authors 400 lead authors from
130 countries 6 years work 1 report
8
Changes in atmospheric composition

• Human activities have increased the concentration
  of the major greenhouse gases
• Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon
  dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide now far exceed
  pre-industrial (1750) values determined from ice
  cores spanning many thousands of years
• From a longer-term perspective, these changes are
  enormous
• CO2 higher than any time in past 20 million
  years
• CH4 higher than any time in past 420,000 years

IPCC 2007
9
Long timescale changes
Source Climate Impacts Group University of
Washington
10
Measured Sea Level Rise at Seattle
Hugh Shipman, Department of Ecology
http//depts.washington.edu/uwconf/psgb/proceeding
s/papers/6a_shipm.pdf
11
CQ 3 Based on your understanding of the above
slide, which statement do you think best
characterizes the local consequences of climate
change on sea level?

1. The trend in global temperature increase will
   have only a minimal increase in sea level,
   because the sea level rise in the last 100 years
   was only about six inches.
2. The trend in global temperature increase will
   have no effect locally.
3. The trend in global temperature increase may have
   noticeable consequences in the next 100 years for
   human settlements near sea level.
4. The trend in global temperature increase will
   lead to a sea level rise of 50 feet in the next
   100 years.

12
The Climate Impacts Group at the University of
Washington predicts that

• There will be a rise in average temperature
  throughout the 21st century
• There will be sea level rise in the Puget Sound
  region throughout the 21st century
• There will be a significant alteration of the
  hydrological cycle in the Pacific Northwest
  throughout the 21st century
• All of this will have substantial impact on the
  salmon runs, timber production, hydroelectric
  energy production, agriculture, and land areas
  close to sea level.

13
Sea Level

• Sea level rise (SLR) will increase the risk of
  flooding, erosion, and habitat loss along most of
  Washingtons 2,500 miles of coastline.
• Global SLR 7 23 by 2100
• Medium estimates of 13 for Puget Sound by 2100
• Higher estimates up to 4 feet in Puget sound
  cannot be ruled out at this time.

http//cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetalslr579.p
df
14

• A sea level rise of one foot will have its
  greatest impact on the shore at high tide.

Olympia, Washington with blue color showing
areas that would be flooded at high tide with a
one foot rise in sea level.
15
Olympia Sea Level Rise -- Time to sink or swim

16

• Tides are the highest in the winter season in the
  northern hemisphere. This is because the Earth is
  closer to the sun in the northern hemisphere
  winter than it is in the northern hemisphere
  summer. The strength of the suns gravitational
  pull and the moons gravitational pull both
  affect the heights of the tides.
• Each month of the year, the tidal range is
  greatest when the sun and moon align.

17

• Each month of the year, the tidal range is
  greatest when the sun and moon align. Those times
  are called spring tides, although they have
  nothing to do with the season spring.

http//www.onr.navy.mil/focus/ocean/motion/tides2.
htm
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• The tides in Puget Sound can be raised even
  further by strong river water runoff from rain
  associated with winter storms.

Photo by Rob Cole
Photo by Rob Cole
High tide plus major river runoff from winter
storm
Highest tide of the year
19
The tides in Puget Sound can be raised even
further by strong river water runoff from rain
associated with winter storms.
Photo by Rob Cole
Photo by Rob Cole
High tide plus major river runoff from winter
storm
Highest tide of the year
20

• The effects of sea level rise will also be
  compounded by the effects of high waves
  associated with winter storms.

Image courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington
Department of Ecology
21
Winter storm surges of high waves
Whidbey Island February 4, 2006
Anacortes 4 February, 2006
Source Washington States Integrated Climate
Response Strategy http//climatechange.trans
portation.org/pdf/starkwsdot.pdf
22
CQ 4 Based on your understanding of the above
slides, which statement do you think best
characterizes the local consequences of climate
change on sea level?

1. Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6
   feet in Puget Sound .
2. Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6
   inches in Puget Sound.
3. The difference between high and low tide levels
   is greatest in the season we call spring.
4. Sea level rise is compounded by the effects of
   river water runoff and by high waves in storm
   surges.

23
Coastal Flooding

• Extreme high water levels will increase over
  time
• Flood events of any given magnitude will become
  more frequent
• Longer flood durations
• Drainage of low-lying areas more difficult

24
Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of
Ecology, and Washington States Integrated
Climate Response Strategy (WADOT)
http//climatechange.transportation.org/pdf/starkw
sdot.pdf
25
Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of
Ecology
26
Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of
Ecology
27
Courtesy of Kurt Unger, Washington Department of
Ecology
28
Tribal Lands with Inundation Threats
Hoh Reservation
Quileute Reservation
http//www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/Geolo
gyPublicationsLibrary/Pages/tsuevac.aspx
29
Makah Reservation
Lummi Reservation
http//www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/Geolo
gyPublicationsLibrary/Pages/tsuevac.aspx
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CQ 5 Based on your understanding of the above
slides, which statement do you think best
characterizes the potential consequences of sea
level rise for some Tribal Reservations?

1. Sea level rise presents no threat to Tribal lands
   in Puget Sound, and along the coastline, but
   tsunamis do present a threat.
2. Sea level rise presents only a minor threat to
   Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the
   coastline.
3. Sea level rise presents a significant threat to
   Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the
   coastline.
4. Sea level rise is not occurring quickly enough to
   pose a threat to Tribal lands for at least
   another 50 years.

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Discussion

• Given the slides that youve seen, spend a few
  minutes discussing the possible responses that
  federal, state, and local governments might take
  to work with Tribes to minimize the danger to
  them of sea level rise.
• What might Tribes do to educate the rest of
  society about the threats of sea level rise to
  Tribal peoples and to others living in coastal
  regions?

32
Now Lets See What Some Tribes are Doing In
Response

• 2003 The American Indian and Alaska Native
  Leadership Statement On Global Warming
• 2006 Indigenous Peoples around the Pacific Rim
  produced the report Climate Change and Pacific
  Rim Indigenous Nations.
• 2008 Native Peoples The Miners Canary of
  Climate Change

33

• 2009 A Tribal White Paper on Climate Change
  Adaptation and Mitigation From the Intertribal
  Climate Change Working Group
• 2010 Northwest Tribes Meeting the Challenge of
  Climate Change
• 2010 Swinomish Climate Change Initiative
  Climate Adaptation Action Plan
• 2010 Tribal Recommendations for the Fiscal Year
  2012 Department of Interior Climate Change
  Adaptation Initiative

34

• The Hoh Tribe has moved their sea level village
  to higher ground.
• The Quileute Tribe has moved some buildings to
  higher ground, and is in the process of
  negotiating for land adjacent to its Reservation
  to move more of the Tribal buildings to higher
  ground.
• The Swinomish Tribe has identified portions of
  its Reservation that are at high risk of
  inundation, and has produced a series of
  adaptation strategies.

35

• The Skokomish Tribe is acquiring land adjacent to
  its Reservation, and moving some of their
  buildings to higher land.
• The Tulalip Tribe is doing land use studies with
  an eye to mitigating the effects of climate
  change.
• All of the other Tribes along the Pacific coast
  and in the Puget Sound region have formed climate
  change planning, adaptation and mitigation
  groups.

36

• The following groups are just a few of the groups
  that have taken an active role in climate change
  action planning, and continue to be excellent
  resources regarding climate change adaptation
• The National Congress of American Indians
  http//www.ncai.org/
• The Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission
  http//nwifc.org/
• The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians
  http//www.atnitribes.org/
• Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission
  http//www.critfc.org/
• The National Tribal Environmental Council
  http//www.ntec.org/
• Natural resources Law Center, University of
  Colorado
• Law School http//www.colorado.edu/law/cen
  ters/nrlc/

37
Questions to Consolidate Your Learning
38
CQ 1 Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
scientific evidence for global climate change?

• There is clear scientific evidence that humans
  are significantly affecting the Earths climate.
• There is no scientific evidence that the climate
  of the earth is changing.
• There is some evidence for climate change, but
  absolutely no evidence that human activities are
  affecting the change.
• There is some evidence that humans are having an
  effect on climate.

38
39
CQ 2 Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
consequences for humans of global climate change?

1. The effects of climate change, if any, will be
   small compared to natural changes that have
   occurred before.
2. The effects of climate change will be minor
   except in poor, less developed countries, or in
   remote regions.
3. Climate change will significantly affect many
   countries.
4. The effects of climate change will be
   catastrophic around the world.

39
40
CQ 3 Based on your understanding of the slides
in this case, which statement do you think best
characterizes the local consequences of climate
change on sea level?

1. The trend in global temperature increase will
   have only a minimal increase in sea level,
   because the sea level rise in the last 100 years
   was only about six inches.
2. The trend in global temperature increase will
   have no effect locally.
3. The trend in global temperature increase may have
   noticeable consequences in the next 100 years for
   human settlements near sea level.
4. The trend in global temperature increase will
   lead to a sea level rise of 50 feet in the next
   100 years.

41
CQ 4 Based on your understanding of the slides
in this case, which statement do you think best
characterizes the local consequences of climate
change on sea level?

1. Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6
   feet in Puget Sound .
2. Sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be about 6
   inches in Puget Sound.
3. The difference between high and low tide levels
   is greatest in the season we call spring.
4. Sea level rise is compounded by the effects of
   river water runoff and by high waves in storm
   surges.

42
CQ 5 Based on your understanding of the slides
in this case, which statement do you think best
characterizes the potential consequences of sea
level rise for some Tribal Reservations?

1. Sea level rise presents no threat to Tribal lands
   in Puget Sound, and along the coastline, but
   tsunamis do present a threat.
2. Sea level rise presents only a minor threat to
   Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the
   coastline.
3. Sea level rise presents a significant threat to
   Tribal lands in Puget Sound, and along the
   coastline.
4. Sea level rise is not occurring quickly enough to
   pose a threat to Tribal lands for at least
   another 50 years.

43
References

• Boyd 2010, Washington States Integrated Climate
  Response Strategy, Nancy Boyd, Washington State
  Department of Transportation, December 2010,
  http//climatechange.transportation.org/pdf/starkw
  sdot.pdf (accessed May 28, 2011)
• DNR 2007, Tsunami Evacuation Brochures,
  Washington State Department of Natural Resources
  (DNR), 2007, http//www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience
  /Topics/GeologyPublicationsLibrary/Pages/tsuevac.a
  spx (accessed May 22, 2011)
• Hannah 2007, Native Communities and Climate
  Change Protecting Tribal Resources as Part of
• National Climate Policy, Jonathan M.
  Hannah, Natural Resources Law Center University
  of
• Colorado Law School, 2007,
• http//www.colorado.edu/law/centers/nrlc/pu
  blications/Climate_Report_Exec_Summary.pdf
• (Accessed Aug 20, 2011)
• International Indian Treaty Council 2003, The
  American Indian and Alaska Native Leadership
  Statement on Global Warming, International Indian
  Treaty Council, 2003,
• http//www.treatycouncil.org/new_page_52441
  111211111.htm (accessed July 28, 2011)
• IPCC 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change, Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report,
  United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and
  the World Meteorological Organization (WMO),
  http//www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed May 22, 2011)

44
References (continued)

• McNutt 2008, Native Peoples The Miners Canary
  of Climate Change, Northwest Indian Applied
• Research Institute, The Evergreen State
  College, 2008,
• http//nwindian.evergreen.edu/pdf/climatecha
  ngereport.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011)
• McNutt 2010, Northwest Tribes Meeting the
  Challenge of Climate Change, Northwest Indian
  Applied
• Research Institute, The Evergreen State
  College, 2010,
• http//academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/clim
  atechangebooklet.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011)
• McNutt 2010, Northwest Tribes Meeting the
  Challenge of Climate Change, Northwest Indian
  Applied
• Research Institute, The Evergreen State
  College, 2010,
• http//academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/clim
  atechangebooklet.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011)
• Mote 2008, Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters
  of Washington State, Philip Mote, Alexander
  Petersen,
• Spencer Reeder, Hugh Shipman, and Lara
  Whitely Binder, University of Washington Climate
  Impacts
• Group and the Washington Department of
  Ecology, January 2008,
• http//cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetalslr
  579.pdf (accessed May 28, 2011)
• National Congress of American Indians 2010,
  Tribal Recommendations for the Fiscal Year 2010
• Department of Interior Climate Change
  Adaptation Initiative, Nov. 2010,

45
References (continued)

• ONR 2005, Office of Naval Research, Science
  Technology Focus, website http//www.onr.navy.mil
  /focus/ocean/motion/tides2.htm (accessed May 28,
  2011)
• Parker et. al. 2006, Climate Change and Pacific
  Rim Indigenous Nations, Alan Parker et. al.,
  Northwest
• Indian Applied Research Institute, The
  Evergreen State College, 2006,
• http//academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/cl
  imatechangebooklet.pdf (accessed July 27, 2011)
  
• Sharp et. al. 2009, A Tribal White Paper on
  Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation From the
  
• Intertribal Climate Change Working Group,
  Fawn Sharp et. al., Intertribal Climate Change
  Working
• Group, August, 2009, http//209.206.175.157
  /documents/climatechange.pdf (accessed July 28,
  2011)
• Shipman 2009, The Response of the Salish Sea to
  Rising Sea Level A Geomorphic Perspective, Hugh
• Shipman, Washington State Department of
  Ecology, 2009
• http//depts.washington.edu/uwconf/psgb/pro
  ceedings/papers/6a_shipm.pdf (accessed May 28,
• 2011)
• Swinomish Indian Tribal Community 2010, Swinomish
  Climate Change Initiative website
• http//www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change
  /climate_main.html
• Note in particular Swinomish Climate
  Change Initiative Climate adaption Action Plan,
  October 2010
• http//www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change
  /Docs/SITC_CC_AdaptationActionPlan_complete.pdf

46
References (continued)

• Wildcat 2009, Red Alert Save the Planet with
  Indigenous Knowledge, Daniel R. Wildcat, Fulcrum
• Publishing, 2009. ISBN 978-1555916374
• Unger 2011, Sea Level Rise and Ocean
  Acidification, Kurt Unger, Washington State
  Department of
• Ecology, 2011, (personal communication)
• United Nations 2008, United Nations Declaration
  of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, March 2008,
• http//www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documen
  ts/DRIPS_en.pdf (Accessed Aug 20, 2011)

47
For Further Study

• An excellent series of case studies that explores
  different aspects of global climate change and
  Tribal peoples can be found at the website of the
  Enduring Legacies Native Case Studies Project
• http//nativecases.evergreen.edu/collection/themes
  /climate-change.html