An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington State

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An integrated assessment of the impacts of
climate change on Washington State
Marketa McGuire Elsner University of Washington
JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group
Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering In cooperation with Jeremy S.
Littell, Edward L. Miles, Dennis P.
Lettenmaier March 5, 2008 Climate Prediction
Application Science Workshop 2008
Climate science in the public interest
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Outline

• Background of WA State climate impacts assessment
• Project framework (sneak preview of results)
• Project objectives
• Relationship between impacts assessment another
  state climate change initiative

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Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment

• Funding Source Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill
  1303

Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the
Washington State Legislature website http//apps.
leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx
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HB 1303 Background

• Legislation signed by Washington Governor in
  Spring 2007
• Bills goal is to reduce the states dependence
  on fossil fuels and to build a clean energy
  economy via
• Policies and incentive programs to help
  businesses, consumers, and farmers have access to
  cleaner fuels
• Impacts analysis and emission accounting
  procedures that prepare Washington to respond and
  prosper as climate changes

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Infrastructure
Human Health
Agriculture/Economics
Water Resources
A comprehensive state climate change assessment
that includes the impacts of global warming
Coasts
Energy
Salmon
Forest Resources
Adaptation / Legal Barriers
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Project Domain
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Conceptual Approach to Assessment

• Integrated assessment of regional climate
  impacts
• The study of how climate, natural resources, and
  human socioeconomic systems affect each other

Source Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural
and Social Science for Regional Assessment of
Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest.
Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology
Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.
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Goals of the Impacts Assessment

• Evaluate impacts of climate change into the next
  century
• use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios
• show regional impacts and areas of high and low
  sensitivity to climate change
• characterize barriers to adaptation to these
  impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) with help
  from UW Law School
• provide tools for policy makers and user groups
• collaborate with Governors Climate Change
  Challenge team

To be completed December 2008
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Data Needs to Support a 21st Century Planning
Framework Incorporating Climate Information and
Uncertainty
Approach provides ensemble of variables that can
be used to evaluate impacts of climate change
2 Emissions Scenarios
20 GCMs
2 Downscaling Approaches
X
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IPCC Climate Scenarios

• Precipitation
• Air Temperature
• Streamflow
• Soil Moisture
• PET
• VPD
• And more!

Hydrology Modeling
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Projected Increases in PNW Temperature
14.4F
10.8F
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Projected Increases in PNW Precipitation
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Sector Focus Points

• Hydrology/Water Resources
• Impacts to rivers and response of states
  physical water management infrastructure
• Produce future hydrologic scenarios at over 200
  locations in the Pacific Northwest (related
  project)
• Energy
• Impacts to hydropower production (Columbia River)
  and regional heating cooling degree days
• Salmon
• Productivity of States streams for salmonids
• Regions and conditions under which salmonid
  habitat is most vulnerable

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Sector Focus Points

• Agriculture/Economics
• Impacts on productivity and sustainability of
  States agriculture, focusing on key crops (tree
  fruits, grapes, potatoes)
• Forests
• Impacts to growth and productivity of forests and
  their susceptibility to fire and insect
  disturbance
• Coasts
• Impacts of sea level rise on structures
  (inundation and flooding)
• Changes in erosion on bluffs, spits, ocean beaches

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Sector Focus Points

• Infrastructure
• Impacts on vulnerable elements of civil
  infrastructure (stormwater systems)
• Consider precipitation variability and flood
  frequency/magnitude
• Health
• Impacts of ozone and particulate matter on
  childhood asthma
• Heat stress and potential increases in mortality

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Relationship between Impacts Assessment and
Washington State Climate Initiative
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• Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce
  CO2 emissions
• Make recommendations on improved preparedness and
  adaptation

Draft recommendations
Complete Final report

February 2008
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(No Transcript)
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Relationship between PAWGs and HB1303 Sectors
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Highlights

• Washington State supports climate change study
  and linkages between science and decision-making.
  
• Integrated assessment approach which connects
  climate predictions to hydrology and other impact
  sectors.

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More information on the Climate Impacts Group or
WA State Climate Impacts Assessment
The Climate Impacts Group www.cses.washington.ed/c
ig Marketa McGuire Elsner mmcguire_at_u.washington.
edu
Climate science in the public interest