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APEGGA PD Conference April 22-23, 2004


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Title: APEGGA PD Conference April 22-23, 2004

APEGGA PD Conference April 22-23, 2004
  • David J. Lapp, P.Eng.
  • Manager, Professional Practice
  • Canadian Council of Professional Engineers

Presentation Outline
  • Introduction to CCPE
  • Introduction to Climate Change and its
  • The Science of Climate Change
  • Impacts of Climate Change
  • Engineering and Climate Change
  • CCPEs Impact and Adaptation Action Plan
  • Concluding Remarks
  • References/Sources

Introduction to CCPE
  • CCPE is the federation of 12 provincial and
    territorial associations/ordre and funded
    primarily by them through member fees
  • Voice of its constituent members in national and
    international affairs
  • Promotes greater understanding of the nature,
    role and contribution of engineering to society

What does CCPE do?
  • Research, surveys and policy development
  • Federal government relations
  • Member services (life, auto and home insurance,
    investment programs)
  • Holds official marks on the terms engineer,
    engineering, professional engineer, P.Eng.,
    consulting engineer, and their French equivalents

What does CCPE do?
  • CCPE has two major subcommittees
  • Canadian Engineering Accreditation Board (CEAB) -
  • Canadian Engineering Qualifications Board (CEQB)
    qualification and practice
  • CEQB has a subcommittee called the Environment
    and Sustainability Committee which is where the
    climate change issue resides

Introduction to Climate Change and its Terminology

Climate is not weather
  • Climate is average weather
  • - and its variability
  • - for a particular region
  • - over a period of time
  • Includes many different elements
  • Climate is what you expect
  • weather is what you get

Climate change can be confused with climate
  • Climate change is a shift in climate relative
  • to a given reference time period
  • Climate change on a century time scale can
  • be called climate variability on millennial
  • scales
  • Climate variability is often considered
  • internal to the climate system
  • Climate change is normally caused by
  • external factors

Climate Change What is it?
  • Climate change is concerned about significant
    changes in key climate variables such as
  • Temperature
  • Precipitation and atmospheric moisture
  • Snow cover
  • Extent of land and sea ice
  • Sea level
  • Patterns in atmospheric and oceanic circulation
  • Extreme weather and climate events
  • Overall features of climate variability

Climate Change Why is it happening
  • (1)Past is prologue Earth has experienced many
    different climate regimes throughout geological
    history and will undoubtedly experience them in
    the future.
  • (2)Climate change is a naturally occurring
    phenomenon at a geological time scale and more or
    less hospitable to varying life forms, including
    human beings

Climate Change Why is it happening
  • Any factor that alters the radiation received
    from the Sun or lost to space, or alters the
    redistribution of energy within the atmosphere
    and between the atmosphere, land and ocean, can
    affect climate change.

Climate Change Radiative Forcing
  • Changes in the net radiative energy available
    to the global Earth-atmosphere system is termed a
    radiative forcing. Positive radiative forcings
    tend to have a warming effect while Negative
    radiative forcings tend to have a
  • cooling effect

Radiative Forcings
  • Factor Radiative Forcing Timescale
  • Greenhouse Gases Positive Decades/Centuri
  • Tropospheric Aerosols Negative Weeks
  • Volcanic Activities Negative Years
  • Nuclear Explosions/Asteroids Negative Immediate
  • Changed Solar Output Either Varies
  • Ocean Circulation Either Varies

Greenhouse Gas Levels
  • GHG Pre-IR 1998 Change Atmos Life
  • CO2 280 ppm 365 ppm 1.5 ppm/yr 5 to 200 yr
  • CH4 700 ppb 1745 ppb 7.0 ppb/yr 12 yr
  • N2O 270 ppb 314 ppb 0.8 ppb/yr 114 yr
  • CFC-11 zero 268 ppt -1.4 ppt/yr 45 yr
  • HFC-23 zero 14 ppt 0.55 ppt/yr 260 yr
  • CF4 40 ppt 80 ppt 1 ppt/yr gt50,000 yr

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Mitigation - an intervention to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks for greenhouse gases
that are a driver for climatic change. This
strategy is used to slow the rate of climatic
change. Adaptation - an adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic changes, which moderates harm or
exploits beneficial opportunities.
The degree to which a system is susceptible to,
or unable to cope with, adverse effects of
climate, including climate variability and
extremes. It is a function of the character,
magnitude and rate of climate variation to which
a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its
adaptive capacity.
How the climate is changing and its impacts
Global mean mean surface temperature (combined
land/ocean) is rising
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CO2 concentrations are now unprecedented in at
least the past 400,000 years
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Winters in most of Canada are likely to become
But summers in interior North America are
expected to become drier
Sea ice will retreat, particularly in summer
Sea levels will rise
Inland flood disasters may become more frequent
as rains become more intense
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The frequency and severity of droughts are also
likely to increase in southern Canada
Central North America
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Disaster losses
  • Worldwide during the 1990s there were
  • more than 2,500 natural disasters
  • more than 650,000 people killed
  • more than CDN 1 trillion in damage
  • losses were 10-fold greater than during the 1950s

Canadian natural disasters
Global costs of natural disasters are rising
Global natural disaster losses
US billions (2001 prices)
Recent Extreme Events with Severe Economic
Saguenay flood,Quebec
Red River flood, Manitoba
Storm surge, Charlottetown PEI
Prairie drought, AB and SK
Impacts on Communities (1)
  • Infrastructure
  • Runoff, landslides and flooding
  • Water intake/control infrastructure
  • Accelerated deterioration
  • Damage
  • Reduced security of energy supply
  • Design specifications/margin of safety in
    building codes

Impacts on Communities (2)
  • Water Resources
  • Increased capacity demands on sewage and water
  • Pressures on source water resources and changed
    patterns (especially glacial runoff and
  • Social and economic impacts (tourism and
  • Degraded water quality

Impacts on Communities (3)
  • Human Health
  • Vector borne and waterborne diseases
  • Extreme heat and cold events
  • Deteriorating air quality
  • Secondary impacts (mold, increased transportation
    accidents and fatalities)

Projected Effects of Climate Change in Alberta
  • Increase in daily minimum temperatures
  • Warmer winters (shorter ski seasons, longer golf
  • More frequent periods of drought in southern
  • Reduction of glaciers and changes in spring and
    summer runoff
  • Increased frequency and severity of extreme
    weather events
  • Water quality and water supply case study of
    impact on Calgary water supply underway
  • Shifts in the nature and coverage of forests
  • Reduction of permafrost coverage

Climate Change Challenges
  • Long-term reduction of CO2 is a greater challenge
    as energy use will continue to rise. Progress is
    needed across the board continued efficiency
    improvements, more renewable energy and new
    technologies that produce little or no CO2 or
    that capture and sequester it
  • Study of Earths climate suggests that small
    forces maintained long enough can cause large
    climate change (non-linear effects, 29th day)
  • The debate over climate change is highly charged
    because of the inherent economic stakes

Climate ChangeSo what?
  • If current climate change is natural, then all we
    can do is try to adapt
  • If human activity is causing or contributing to
    climate change, then mitigative measures should
    be considered
  • Approach seems to be to assume climate change is
    happening, while accepting considerable
    uncertainty surrounding the issue. We have
    certainly not heard the final word on the

Climate Change Measures in Alberta
  • Climate Change Adaptation Planning 12
    government departments with Climate Change
  • Legislation in place to require designs to
    account for future changes in emissions
    standards, limits and guidelines
  • Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative
  • Water sustainability strategy
  • Alberta government aims by 2020 to reduce
    emissions intensity by 50 percent below 1990

Engineering and Climate Change
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  • An intervention to reduce the sources or
    enhance the sinks for greenhouse gases that are a
    driver for climatic change. This strategy is used
    to slow the rate of climatic change.

Kyoto Protocol
  • What is it?
  • Current Status

Kyoto Protocol What is it?
  • Negotiated in December 1997, in Kyoto, Japan
  • Legally binding agreement under which
    industrialized countries will reduce their
    collective emissions of some greenhouse gases by
    5.2 compared to the year 1990 (but note that,
    compared to the emissions levels that would be
    expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this
    target represents a 29 cut.)
  • The goal is to lower overall emissions from six
    greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane,
    nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, HFCs, and
    PFCs - calculated as an average over the
    five-year period of 2008 - 12.
  • National targets range from 8 reductions for the
    European Union and some others to 7 for the US,
    6 for Japan, 0 for Russia, and permitted
    increases of 8 for Australia and 10 for
    Iceland. Canada is targeted with a 6 reduction

Kyoto Protocol What is it (2)
  • Each Annex I (developed) country has agreed to
    limit emissions to the levels described in the
    protocol, but many countries have limits that are
    set above their current production.
  • These "extra amounts" can be purchased by other
    countries on the open market. So, for instance,
    Russia currently easily meets its targets, and
    can sell off its credits for millions of dollars
    to countries that don't yet meet their targets,
    Canada for instance.
  • This rewards countries that meet their targets,
    and provides financial incentives to others to do
    so as soon as possible.

Kyoto Protocol Current Status
  • As of 2002, 104 countries have ratified the
    protocol, including Canada, People's Republic of
    China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and the fifteen
    countries of the European Union.
  • 19 countries have signed the protocol but not
    ratified it. Of those eight are Annex I
    countries Australia (not intending to ratify),
    Croatia , Liechtenstein , Monaco , Russia --
    Russia has changed stances on the issue several
    times, with conflicting statements from various
    ministers. The current stance (as of December
    2003) is that they have significant reservations,
    but are undecided. Switzerland The Kyoto Protocol
    has been ratified by the Senate but not yet by
    the House of Representatives. Ukraine -- Ukraine
    is expected to ratify the treaty. United States
    (not intending to ratify the treaty).

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Mitigation Strategies for Buildings
  • Develop and adapt energy-saving technologies
  • Construction material selection (minimum use of
    natural resources), design for disassembly,
    efficient and durable envelope, durability
  • OM clean renewable energy, energy efficient
    HVAC and lighting systems
  • Building renewal/deconstruction waste
    management, deconstruction practice, effective
    and efficient recycling

Climate Change Emerging Technologies
  • Advanced technologies
  • Agricultural Waste
  • Agriculture
  • Air monitoring
  • Buildings
  • Coal combustion
  • Coal mining technology
  • Combined cycle
  • Combined heat power
  • Combined renewable energy technologies
  • Electrical
  • Engines transmissions
  • Forestry energy crops
  • Fuel cells
  • Gas cleaning systems
  • Geothermal energy
  • Heat recovery storage
  • High temperature technologies
  • Hydroelectricity
  • Hydrogen
  • Industrial technologies
  • Industrial waste
  • Landfill gas
  • Lighting
  • Municipal waste
  • Nuclear technology
  • Ocean energy
  • Oil natural gas technology
  • Solar energy (heat)
  • Solar power
  • Transport

  • An adjustment in natural or human systems in
    response to actual or expected climatic changes,
    which moderates harm or exploits beneficial

Kyoto Protocol and Adaptation
  • All parties to the UN Framework Convention on
    Climate Change (UNFCCC) KYOTO have a
    requirement, under Articles 4.1 and 4.8, to
    assess their national vulnerability and develop
    strategies for adaptation to climate changes.
  • They are also required to invest in climate
    research and integrated risk assesment, to
    educate and to communicate this knowledge both
    nationally and internationally. 2005 is the first
    deadline to report progress.

Types of Adaptation
  • Anticipatory before impacts are observed
  • Reactive after impacts are observed
  • Autonomous not a conscious response
  • Planned the result of a deliberate policy
  • Private initiated and implemented by
    individuals, households or private companies
  • Public initiated and implemented by governments
    at all levels
  • Source IPCC WGII TAR (2001)

Share the Loss
Bear the Loss
Structural, Technological
Modify the Events
Legislative, Regulatory, Financial
Prevent the Effects
Institutional, Administrative
On-site Operations
Education, Behavioural
Change Use
Avoid the Impacts
Change Location
Source adapted from Burton et al., 1993
Burton, 1995b.
Adaptation and Mitigation
  • Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales
    to compliment climate change mitigation efforts
  • Engineers should promote and be involved in both
  • Mitigation will/may slow but not stop climate
    change we must still adapt
  • We need time to adapt in an era of conflicting
    priorities and limited resources
  • It is a question of risk management

Aspects of Adaptation (1)
  • Develop approach and practices for protecting and
    improving existing construction against effects
    of climate change
  • Develop approach and practices for design,
    operation and maintenance of buildings (such as
    additional cooling requirements in the summer and
    heating in the winter)

Aspects of Adaptation (2)
  • Revise codes, such as flood plain mapping and
    climate data and return frequencies for
    hazard-prone areas, adjusting to new realities,
    i.e. 100-year floods become 500-year floods,
    higher snow and wind loads
  • Consider land use restriction on new
    construction, especially for floodplains, coastal
    shoreline, landslide prone areas

Aspects of Adaptation (3)
  • Three-step approach for protecting existing
  • Screening - to set priority (ranking) for
    detailed evaluation needs (based on buildings
    location, type and use of the building, building
    age, A/M/E systems etc)
  • Evaluation - to determine a buildings deficiency
    against effects of climate change
  • Retrofitting - improve a buildings performance
    against effects of climate change

Implications for Engineering Disciplines and
Areas of Practice (1)
  • Development of Standards
  • Climatology / Meteorology
  • Infrastructure Design
  • Civil Engineering
  • Geotechnical Engineering
  • Municipal Engineering
  • Municipal Administration
  • Hydrotechnical Engineering

Geotechnical Engineering
  • Impacts of increased intensity, duration and
    accumulation of rainfall and flooding include
    weakening of foundations, diminishing slope
    stability, erosion and landslides
  • Impacts of drought can include cracking of
    foundations as soil moisture content diminishes

Implications for Engineering Disciplines and
Areas of Practice (2)
  • Structural Engineering
  • Materials Engineering
  • Mining Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Refrigeration Engineering
  • Industrial Design
  • Environmental Engineering
  • Waste Management Engineering

Structural engineering
  • Design of structures needs to include measures to
    protect structures from impacts of weather
    changes and measures to reduce the effects that
    the life cycles of structures have on the climate
  • Measures include selection of construction
    materials and management of construction waste
    materials can contribute to GHG mitigation as
    well as adaptation/performance

Structural engineering (2)
  • Structural engineers that do not design for
    climate change open themselves to critical
    underestimations of structural strength and
  • Designing for extreme weather monitor and
    measure structures in areas with extreme weather
    or where it is changing significantly
  • Confirm and fine-tune climate design data for
    development and/or updating of codes and standards

Implications for Engineering Disciplines and
Areas of Practice (3)
  • Chemical Engineering
  • Natural Resource Management
  • Agriculture
  • Forest Management
  • Building Engineering
  • Lighting Engineering
  • HVAC Technology
  • Building Envelope Design

Implications for Engineering Disciplines and
Areas of Practice (4)
  • Real Property Management
  • Architecture
  • Information Technology
  • Port Authorities
  • Shipping Regulation
  • Shipping Regulation and Coast Guards
  • Fishing Quota Regulation

Vulnerability of the Energy Sector
  • Drought caused 6 billion Kwh loss to Manitoba
    Hydro in 1987-88, 9 billion in 1988-89 - spent
    18M to manage the situation
  • 2001 and 2003 heat waves forced Ontario to import
    thousands of MW
  • Ontario/Quebec ice storm 1998 loss of power,
    transmission lines and towers, billions of
    dollars of infrastructure and property damage

Energy System Adaptation Concerns
  • More warmer days
  • Increased energy demand from air conditioners
  • More intense weather events
  • More robust energy system designs
  • Larger over capacity design margins
  • Increased cloud cover
  • Solar power development compromised
  • Possible Shifting Wind Patterns
  • Wind Power Development could be compromised
  • Source Nodelman (2003)

Energy System AdaptationDesign Issues
  • Critical vs. Non-Critical Systems
  • Do we have good definitions?
  • Is there such a thing as 100 reliability?
  • How long can system outages reasonably be
  • Energy system shortages?
  • Will we tolerate brown out during peak
    electricity periods?
  • How much over capacity is actually required?
  • Robust design
  • What is an appropriate safety margin in design?
  • How robust do energy systems have to be?
  • Source Nodelman (2003)

Adaptation Example Northern Infrastructure
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12 Principles of Green Engineering
  • 1. Designers need to strive to ensure that all
    material and energy inputs and outputs are as
    inherently non-hazardous as possible.
  • 2. It is better to prevent waste than to treat or
    clean up waste after it is formed.
  • 3. Separation and purification operations should
    be designed to minimize energy consumption and
    materials use.
  • 4. Products, processes, and systems should be
    designed to maximize mass, energy, space, and
    time efficiency.

12 Principles of Green Engineering(Contd)
  • 5. Products, processes, and systems should be
    "output pulled" rather than "input pushed"
    through the use of energy and materials.
  • 6. Embedded entropy and complexity must be viewed
    as an investment when making design choices on
    recycle, reuse, or beneficial disposition.
  • 7. Targeted durability, not immortality, should
    be a design goal.
  • 8. Design for unnecessary capacity or capability
    (e.g. "one size fits all") solutions should be
    considered a design flaw

12 Principles of Green Engineering(Contd)
  • 9. Material diversity in multi-component products
    should be minimized to promote disassembly and
    value retention.
  • 10. Design of products, processes, and systems
    must include integration and interconnectivity
    with available energy and materials flow.
  • 11. Products, processes, and systems should be
    designed for performance in a commercial
  • 12. Material and energy inputs should be
    renewable rather than depleting.

Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change
  • Key for engineers considering adaptation
    strategies is to define the risks and making
    choices based on them
  • Risk management process facilitates the selection
    of adaptation strategies by providing a framework
    for managing them
  • CAN/CSA Q850-97 Risk management Guideline for
    Decision-Makers A National Standard for Canada
    defines the terms and lays out steps of the risk
    management process in Canada

Risk Management Process
  • Initiation
  • Preliminary Analysis
  • Risk Estimation
  • Risk Evaluation
  • Risk Control
  • Action and Monitoring
  • Risk Communications

Words of Advice
  • Do not base design criteria solely on historic
  • Maximize flexibility recognizing uncertainty and
    need to accommodate extreme climatic events that
    occur more frequently and more severely than in
    the past
  • Consider climate change as another factor in
    risk management strategy
  • Define and monitor systems relative to critical

CCPE Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Action
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Action Plan
  • Developed by the Environment and Sustainability
    Committee of the CEQB
  • Results of the Climate Change Impact and
    Adaptation Workshop - Adapting to Climate Change
    - The Role of Canadas Engineers February 2003
  • Workshop was co-funded by the NRCan Climate
    Change Action Fund

CCAP Strategies
  • Education of engineering students and
    professional engineers
  • Raise awareness of the profession, industry,
    decision makers and the public on the need to
    consider impacts of and adaptation to climate
    change, however caused
  • Develop standards and codes of practice to
    incorporate into engineering design/practice
  • Formal and sustained links between scientists and

CCAP Action Areas
  • Communication
  • Education
  • Continuing Professional Development (CPD)
  • Guidelines, Codes and Standards
  • Networking of Scientists and Engineers
  • Funding Arrangements

Engineering Infrastructure Expert Working Groups
  • Identify and recommend research, development and
    pilot/demonstration projects
  • Assist in review of existing national codes,
    standards, policies and practices for specific
    engineering infrastructures
  • Advice to federal government departments
  • Need for volunteers with specific expertise from
    the profession across the country

Concluding Remarks (1)
  • Engineers need to consider the impacts of climate
    change on future designs
  • In certain areas of practice develop appropriate
    adaptive measures
  • Engineers are already deeply involved in
    mitigation efforts development and
    commercialization of technologies and best
    practices to reduce GHGs
  • Adaptation measures are less developed across the
    disciplines role of the profession
  • Adaptation is the job of engineers

Concluding Remarks (2)
  • Will require adjustments to the principles of
    engineering design prediction vs historical
  • Further work is required on costs and benefits of
    adaptation as well as qualitative measures
  • Adaptation measures will require engineers to
    work closely with other stakeholders including
    planners, scientists, politicians and the public
  • The profession wants to document and communicate
    examples of engineering practice that consider
    and/or anticipate the impacts of climate change

Concluding Remarks (3)
  • More research is needed to estimate impacts
  • Climate change models need increased resolution
  • Climate change is happening regardless of cause
    we need to mitigate change as best we can but
    most importantly we must adapt

Useful Reference
  • Impacts of Climate Change on Architectural and
    Engineering Practices A Preliminary
    Investigation Innovations and Solutions
    Directorate, PWGSC, Ottawa, Ontario September
    2003 (ftp.pwgsc.gc.ca/rpstech/ClimateChange/pwgscC

Useful Websites (1)
  • www.climatechange.gc.ca
  • www.ec.gc.ca/climate (Environment Canada)
  • www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca (Natural Resources
  • www.c-ciarn.ca (Climate Change Impacts and
    Adaptation Research Network)
  • www.csa.ca (Canadian Standards Association)
  • www.infrastructurecanada.gc.ca
  • www.ipcc.ch (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  • www.unfcc.int (Kyoto Protocol)

Useful Websites (2)
  • www3.gov.ab.ca/env/climate
  • www.climatechangecentral.com

The Canadian Council of Professional Engineers
Web site www.ccpe.ca Tel. 613-232-2474 Fax
613-230-5759 E-mail info_at_ccpe.ca
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