Minnesota Climate and Health Program

1
Agriculture Food Security Climate Change
Training Module

• Minnesota Climate and Health Program
• Minnesota Department of Health
• Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit

625 Robert Street North PO Box 64975 St. Paul, MN
55164-0975
2
Notice
MDH developed this presentation based on
scientific research published in peer-reviewed
journals. References for information can be found
in the relevant slides and/or at the end of the
presentation.
3
Outline

• Food Security
• Observed Climate Changes
• Crop Production
• Livestock Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation Best Management Practices

4
Definitions

• Food Security
• Food safety
• Amount of food
• all people at all times have both physical and
  economic access to access to sufficient, safe and
  nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active
  life
• - World Health Organization

5
Minnesota Agriculture

• Economic impact of Minnesotas agriculture
• 75 billion per year in agricultural
• production and processing
• Employment impact 342,000 jobs
• Nationally, Minnesota is top 10 in more than
• 20 agricultural products
• 1 turkey, sugar beets
• 2 hogs, sweet corn for processing, oats, wild
  rice
• 3 soybeans, spring wheat, green peas for
  processing, dry edible beans
• 4 corn, canola, flaxseed
• 5 mink pelts
• 6 dairy cows, red meat, hay, cheese, honey
• 7 milk, potatoes, sunflowers
• 9 cattle and calves
• 10 lamb
• If MN agriculture was disrupted, it could have a
  great impact on our economy and food security for
  the U.S. and internationally

(Source Ye, 2013)
6
Food Security and Health

• Climate change could affect
• Amount of food produced
• Variety and nutritional value of food
• Cost of food

• Minnesotans consume food from a global market
  food security is impacted by climate change not
  just in Minnesota

(Source NCADAC, 2013)
7
Outline

• Food Security
• Observed Climate Changes
• Crop Production
• Livestock Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation Best Management Practices

8
Definitions

• Weather conditions of the atmosphere over a
  short period of time
• Climate conditions of the atmosphere over long
  periods of time (30- year standard averaging
  period)

(Source NASA, 2005)
9
Observed Climate Changes

• There have been three recent significant observed
  climate trends in Minnesota
• The average temperature is increasing
• The average number of days with a high dew point
  may be increasing
• The character of precipitation is changing

(Sources Seeley, 2012 Zandlo, 2008)
10
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
(Sources Western Regional Climate Center, 2011a
Seeley, 2012)
11
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Significant observations in warming pattern

• Winter temperatures have been rising about twice
  as fast as annual average temperatures
• Minimum or overnight low temperatures have been
  rising faster than maximum or daytime high
  temperatures

(Source Zandlo, 2008)
12
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Seasonal Temperature Trends (F per century)
Based on 1895-2010 Data
SUMMER 0.8
SPRING 1.6
WINTER 2.2
AUTUMN 0.5
(Source Midwestern Regional Climate Center,
2012)
13
Dew Point Changes

• Dew point a measure of water vapor in the air
• A high dew point makes it more difficult for
  sweat to evaporate off the skin, which is one of
  the main mechanisms the body uses to cool itself
• The number of days with high dew point
  temperatures ( 70F) may be increasing in
  Minnesota

(Sources Horstmeyer, 2008 Seeley, 2012)
14
Dew Point Changes
Number of Days
(Sources Seeley, 2012 State Climatology Office,
2012)
15
Changes in Precipitation
(Source Western Regional Climate Center, 2011b)
16
Precipitation Changes in Minnesota
Seasonal Precipitation Trends (inches per
century) Based on 1895-2010 Data
SUMMER 0.8 in
SPRING 0.7 in
WINTER 0.3
AUTUMN 1.2 in
(Source Midwestern Regional Climate Center,
2012)
17
Changes in Precipitation

• Precipitation in Minnesota is changing
• More localized, heavy precipitation events
• Potential to cause both increased flooding and
  drought

(Sources Seeley, 2012 State Climatology
Office, 2012c)
18
Outline

• Food Security
• Observed Climate Changes
• Crop Production
• Livestock Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation Best Management Practices

19
Crop production
20
Climate Change Impacts

• Changing climatic conditions will impact
  Minnesota crop production in four primary ways
• Long-term changes in average temperatures and
  precipitation patterns
• Increase in pests and invasive species
• Acute losses resulting from more frequent and
  intense weather extremes
• Impacts of runoff, soil erosion and reduced
  infiltration from increased intensity of storm
  events

(Source Walthall et al, 2012)
21
Complex System

• Crop production relies on a balance of
  temperature and precipitation, soil composition,
  and atmospheric CO2

CO2
(Sources USDA Global Change Task Force, 2010
Walthall et al, 2012)
22
Longer Growing Season
Earlier spring thaw
2 weeks
Growing season
Growing season

• Earlier Minnesota spring longer growing season
• Midwest growing season lengthened by almost two
  weeks since 1950, due in large part to earlier
  timing of the last spring freeze  
• Earlier pollination
• Longer growing season may increase crop
  production
• Species distributions have shifted

(Sources NCADAC, 2013 CCSP, 2008)
23
Changing Plant Hardiness Zones
Climate change has not only brought Minnesota a
longer growing season but also changes in the
types of plants that will thrive here
(Source National Wildlife Federation, 2010)
24
Effects of Frost Days

• Increase number of frost-free days and reduced
  winter chill hours
• Many crops require minimum number of days near
  freezing to keep plants dormant during winter
• In warmer winters crops bud or bloom earlier
• Pro Longer growing season and potentially larger
  harvest
• Con Increased risk of damage from late spring
  frost (e.g., Minnesota apples and Michigan
  cherries in 2012)

(Sources NCADAC, 2013 Walthall et al, 2012
California Climate and Agricultural Network,
2011)
25
Pests, Diseases and Weeds

• With warmer temperatures in Minnesota, pests,
  diseases and weeds may
• Expand northward into climate-stressed areas
• Survive warming winters better
• Require increased use of pesticides and
  herbicides

(Sources Beddow, Pardey and Seeley, 2012
Walthall et al, 2012 NCADAC, 2013)
26
Warmer Summers

• Warmer Minnesota summers and
• Higher maximum temperatures may
• Increase crop yields with some warming
• Decrease crop yields with too much warming

(Sources Oxfam Issue Briefing, 2012 Walthall et
al, 2012 Seeley, 2008)
27
Warmer Nights Minimum Temps

• Warmer Minnesota nights and higher minimum
  temperatures may
• Stress some plants, taxing their ability to grow
  and resulting in lower yields
• Cause some plants, such as tomatoes, to ripen
  faster
• Disturb pollination and lower crop productivity
  and reduce quality

(Sources Walthall et al, 2012 Hanks, 2013
NCADAC, 2013)
28
Nutritional Value

• Globally, the nutritional value of some foods may
  change due to
• Elevated atmospheric CO2 (increased
  carbohydrates, decreased protein vitamins)
• Changes in cultivated varieties (favor yield over
  nutrient content)

(Sources Davis, Epp and Riordan, 2004 Taub,
Miller and Allen, 2008 NCADAC, 2013)
29
Temperature Effects on Water Demand

• Complex interactions of temperature and
  precipitation

Effects of Increased Evapotranspiration in Three
Scenarios
Inadequate Water
Existing Amounts of Precipitation
Increased Evapo-transpiration and Crop Water
Demand/Use
Increased Temperature
Healthy Crop Growth
Increased Precipitation
Potentially Healthy Crop Growth
Increased CO2
(Sources Walthall et al, 2012 Reich, 2012
NCADAC, 2013)
30
Flood and Drought

• Precipitation variability can cause drought
• Localized, heavy storms can result in inadequate
  precipitation in some regions of the state
• Impacts crop yields
• Prolonged droughts can increase fire danger

2007 Declared Disasters X Drought X Flood
(Sources Seeley, 2012 CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and
AWWA, 2010 IDWG on Climate Change, 2008)
31
Drought

• Crop Production Down in 2012 Due to Drought,
  USDA Reports

(Sources NOAA, 2012 USDA NASS, 2013)
32
Precipitation Effects Flooding

• Increased precipitation in Minnesota has been
  driven by intensification of the heaviest
  rainfalls, resulting in
• Flooded fields and damaged crops
• Increased runoff and reduced infiltration of
  water for crop use
• Increased soil erosion, leading to
• Soil nutrient loss
• Sediment contamination of nearby water bodies

Source Farm Industry News May 24, 2012
(Sources NCADAC, 2013 Walthall et al, 2012)
33
Runoff and Erosion

• Runoff and erosion will be affected most by
• High rainfall intensity
• Soil quality
• Low crop cover in spring and fall
• Land use

Source MPR News photos of the week, June 15,
2012 (Photo courtesy of Pat Baskfield )
(Sources Nearing et al, 2005, Sinha and
Cherkauer, 2010)
34
Outline

• Food Security
• Observed Climate Changes
• Crop Production
• Livestock Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation Best Management Practices

35
Livestock Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine Poultry
36
Climate Change Impacts

• Changing climatic conditions affect animal
  agriculture in four primary ways
• Feed-grain production, availability, and price
• Pastures and forage crop production and quality
• Animal health, growth, and reproduction
• Disease and pest distributions

(Source NCADAC, 2013)
37
Animal Health

• Animal health is highly susceptible to
  temperature
• Heat stress negatively affects cattle, swine and
  poultry health
• Warmer winters may reduce mortality but will
  likely be offset by greater mortality in hotter
  summers 

(Source NCADAC, 2013)
38
Animal Growth Reproduction

• Hotter temperatures may reduce productivity of
  livestock and dairy animals
• Animals lose appetite, gain weight slower and
  take longer to get to market
• Production decreases, including milk from dairy
  cattle and eggs from poultry
• Reproduction decreases
  resulting in smaller herds

(Source CCSP, 2008)
39
Disease and Pest Distributions

• Climate change may affect
• Frequency, intensity, or distribution of animal
  diseases and pests
• Livestocks resistance to infections and diseases

(Source Walthall, 2012)
40
Outline

• Food Security
• Observed Climate Changes
• Crop Production
• Livestock Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation Best Management Practices

41
Culturally Important foods in Minnesota
42
Culturally Important Foods

• Climate change will affect the availability and
  affordability of social and cultural foods
• Mental health effects
• Physical health effects
• Shortages of culturally important foods for
  tribal community members in Minnesota
• Natural wild Rice
• Moose
• Traditional, cold-water fish

(Sources IDWG on Climate Change, 2008 NCADAC,
2013)
43
Wild Rice

• Greatest long-term threat to natural wild rice is
  climate change
• Negative effects on wild rice
• Hot dry conditions
• Warmer winters
• Warm, humid conditions
• Severe weather
• 2012 Northeast flood

Map of Wild Rice Locations Source MN DNR
(Sources DNR, 2008 Myers, 2012)
44
Moose

• Moose are a critical component of the cultural
  identity northern Minnesota, cultural food source
• Decline in Minnesota moose population
• Causes of mortality are likely health- and
  stress-related factors
• Warming climate is a contributing factor in high
  mortality

Source MN DNR
(Sources DNR, 2011 DNR, 2013 Orrick, 2013
45
Fish Warmer Water
Conceptual diagram of climate warming effects on
Minnesota fish communities

• In Minnesota, climate change is warming waters
• Warming waters stress native fish populations and
  may favor invasive species

Sources IDWG on Climate Change, 2008 Peter
Jacobson, DNR Fisheries Research Supervisor
46
Fish Water Quality Impacts

• Climate change may lower water levels
• Which affects concentration of contaminants in
  the water, the concentration of toxic chemicals
  in fish and quantity of fish

Walleye, StarTribune, April 15, 2013

• Warmer waters and rainfall intensity may be
  contributing to an increase in mercury
  concentrations in fish (27)

(Sources CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and AWWA, 2010
Monson, 2009)
47
Outline

• Food Security
• Observed Climate Changes
• Crop Production
• Livestock Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation Best Management Practices

48
Other issues
49
Food Prices

• Food prices may rise if
• Production declines
• Prices of inputs increase (such as,
  petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides)
• Food insecurity increases with rising food prices

(IDWG on Climate Change, 2008 NCADAC, 2013)
50
Food System Delivery

• Climate change impact on food system delivery
• Damage to transport and distribution
  infrastructure from extreme weather events
• Barging/shipping low water levels in Mississippi
  and Lake Superior

Image source Pete Markham
(Source IDWG on Climate Change, 2008)
51
Food Safety

• Impacts of climate change on food safety
• Increased need of climate control to prevent food
  spoilage
• Increased runoff or flooding from livestock to
  nearby fields may cause crop contamination and
  damage to stored food

(Sources IDWG on Climate Change, 2008 Portier
et al, 2010)
52
Outline

• Food Security
• Observed Climate Changes
• Crop Production
• Livestock Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation Best Management Practices

53
Adaptation Best management practices
Best Management Practices
Adapt to climate change
54
Adaptation

• Adaptation is not new to agriculture
• Adaptation practices will vary by location due to
  climatic, soil and topographic variability
• Strategies may include
• Biodiversity
• Wetland restoration
• Reduce soil erosion
• Mitigate heat effects on livestock

(Source NCADAC, 2013)
55
Biodiversity

• Biodiversity increases resilience to changing
  environmental conditions and stresses
• Increases potential to adapt to climate change

• Agrobiodiversity includes
• Harvested crops, livestock breeds, fish species,
  and wild plants and animals
• Supportive species soil micro-biota, bees,
  earthworms, etc.
• Supportive ecosystems0

(Source IDWG on Climate Change, 2008 FAO, 2013)
56
Wetland Buffer Management

• Wetlands and buffers can help manage too much or
  too little precipitation
• MN wetland restoration
• 500,000 acres of wetlands and associated upland
  buffers restored (as of 2007)

Source MDA, 2007
57
Reduce Soil Erosion

• Soil and nutrient erosion rates may increase with
  more intense rainfall events associated with
  climate change

• Strategies
• Conservation tillage
• Crop residue management
• Perennial crops and cover crops
• Management of livestock grazing intensities
• Strategies may also enhance water management
  during drought

Source Farmer D Blog, by Steven Bell on November
14, 2011
(Source Walthall et al, 2012)
58
Mitigate Heat Effects

• Hot weather increases water consumption
• Cattle increase their water consumption by 20-50
  when heat stressed
• Alleviate heat stress in cattle, poultry and
  swine
• Install cooling systems (evaporative cooling,
  air conditioning
• or geothermal)
• Increase air movement
• Provide plenty of water
• and shade
• Manage diet for weather
• (type of food and time
• of day)

(Sources UC-Davis, UMN and WSU, 2012 UMN
Extension, 2012)
59
Promote Diverse Food Supply

• Diverse food supply balance of food grown
  locally and regionally
• Diversity of locally grown food insulates MN from
  climate change impacts in other states and
  countries
• Minnesota Grown promotes local producers of
  specialty crops and livestock
• http//www3.mda.state.mn.us/mngrown/

Source Minnesota Grown Pick of the Month
newsletter, January/February 2013
60
Local Public Health Actions

• Increase food security through programs that
  support food education and health eating
• Food education
• Promote local food initiatives
• Farm to School programs
• Farmers markets
• Accept SNAP and WIC at produce and farmers
  markets

• Spotlight on SHIP
• From 2009-2012 Statewide Health Improvement
  Program (SHIP) funds have funded local public
  health activities that support healthy eating and
  local farms. Achievements include
• Farm to School programs in 440 schools, reaching
  235,00 students
• 95 increase in the number of farmers markets
  across the state

SNAP Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program, formerly known as Food Stamps WIC
Women, Infants and Children Both programs are
supported by USDA
61
Local Public Health Actions

• Reduce potential increases in foodborne illnesses
  due to changes in temperature and precipitation
• Educate on proper food handling (e.g., washing
  fruits and vegetables)
• Monitor MDH website for warnings on fish
  consumption http//www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh
  /fish/

62
Summary
63
Acknowledgements

• This work was supported by cooperative agreement
  5UE1EH000738 from the
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Special thanks to the following people for their
contributions to the creation of this training
module Mark Abrahamson, Minnesota Department of
Agriculture Minden Buswell, University of
Minnesota Mary Hanks, Minnesota Department of
Agriculture Kevin Hennessy, Minnesota Department
of Agriculture Larry Jacobson, University of
Minnesota Kathy Kromroy, Minnesota Department of
Agriculture Ann Pierce, Minnesota Pollution
Control Agency David Schmidt, University of
Minnesota Joshua Stamper, Minnesota Department of
Agriculture Curt Zimmerman, Minnesota Department
of Agriculture Mark Zumwinkle, Minnesota
Department of Agriculture
64
Thank You
Questions?
Contact the Minnesota Climate and Health
Program 651-201-4898 health.climatechange_at_state.m
n.us http//www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatecha
nge/
August 26, 2013
65
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