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Senior Seminar Winter 2011 ISP 4860


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Title: Senior Seminar Winter 2011 ISP 4860

Senior Seminar Winter 2011ISP 4860
  • Section 001 (Bowen)
  • Class 13, April 18
  • Course web site

Gas Prices
When Fuel Makes Transportation Expensive
  • Small (fuel efficient) cars
  • US manufacturers better prepared this time
  • Alternative fuels
  • Short commutes
  • Build manufacturing plants close to assembly
    plants close to markets
  • Globalization in trouble
  • Relies on cheap long-distance shipping

  • Assignments
  • Content
  • The economic recovery
  • Updates
  • Course Summary
  • Writing sentences to be discussed
  • Final Papers
  • Form
  • Oral Presentations schedule and discussion
  • SET

  • Papers due April 25
  • Title page
  • Body Five Chapters totaling 25 pages
  • Works Cited or Works Consulted (one or the other
    but not both)
  • Works Cited a list of all of the works cited in
    the body of your paper
  • Works Consulted Start with Works Cited and add
    sources that you read but did not cite
  • All mixed into one alphabetized list
  • Turn in via Moodle

Assignment Coming Up
  • Next week, April 25 5 10 minute oral
    presentations on your research paper
  • Can be a progress report
  • I do not have a way to make up an oral report,
    and it is a requirement for the course

Economic Recovery
Economic Recovery
  • Domestic recovery still slow
  • Employment growing slowly
  • Housing prices still falling
  • Rising food and gasoline prices, and government
    cut-backs expected to slow growth
  • US pattern typical for advanced economies,
    developing countries doing better

Budget Cutting
  • Recent agreement on FY 2011 budget
  • No abortion self-funding for Washington DC
  • Wolf off of endangered species list
  • Also cutting environmental regulations at State
    levels, on budget grounds

Budget Cutting
  • For 2012 Two versions of future
  • Ryan budget
  • Much smaller government, safety net
  • Will we again come to the point where we need
  • Reduced spending without reliable safety net
  • Much lower taxes, especially on wealthy
  • They will accumulate capital, start new
    businesses and prosperity (trickle down)
  • Has not worked this way if there is not already
  • Spending goes to luxury goods, a corner of the
  • Obama
  • Government spending on human resources and safety

Budget Cutting
  • Apparent agreement on raising US debt ceiling
  • Any question could undercut confidence in US
    paying back loans a disaster
  • Standard and Poors lowered outlook for US bonds
    while affirming AAA rating
  • AAA Extremely strong capacity to meet financial
    commitments. Highest Rating.
  • US Congress may not be able to agree on
    decreasing deficit
  • Shock to stock market although warning earlier

Effects of Income Inequality
  • Wilkinson, Richard andKate Pickett.
    GreaterEquality. AmericanEducator Spring 2011
    6 7.
  • Problems listed on nextslide
  • Data from World Bank,WHO, UN, OECD, etc.

Problems included
  • Problems included
  • Level of trust
  • mental illness (including drugs and alcohol)
  • life expectancy and infant mortality
  • obesity
  • childrens educational performance
  • teenage births
  • homicides
  • imprisonment rates
  • social mobility

International patterns
  • Advanced economies still borrowing and importing
  • Developing countries, especially China creating
    new national currency and lending to advanced
    economies to finance exports
  • Brazil complained that advanced economies keeping
    prices too low

Economic Recovery
US China
Business Spending 30 70
Consumer Spending 70 30
  • Chinas economycompared to US
  • US import economy
  • China exporteconomy
  • With worldwideslump, Chinawants its consumers
    to buy more
  • But without a safety net (medical care, college,
    retirement), they want to save for these things

Chinas Stimulus
  • China made massive stimulus in 2008
  • Feels it needs 9-10 annual growth rate to
    support jobs for urbanizing citizens
  • Growth stayed high, now with India helping the
    rest of the economies
  • But 5.4 inflation in March
  • Government clamping down on credit to fight this
  • Threat to recovery for developed economies

Economic Recovery
  • Economy a complicated system that we do not
  • Without knowing what is wrong, we dont know how
    to fix it.
  • Stock market tanked when Paulson said TARP
    program would switch to consumer credit
  • Banks behaving same way as consumers
  • We didnt spend stimulus checks
  • Banks dont want to spend loaning to people whose
    credit is getting worse
  • We are also ignorant about ecosystem!

Food Stocks
  • Ray Hilborn
  • Prof. aquatic fishery sciences, U Wash.
  • Says fish stocks in better shape than many
  • Especially in US since 1976
  • Magnuson Fishery Conservation Management Act
  • Fishery councils successful for 15 years
  • Fish commonly in trouble around world
  • Migratory one country does not control
  • Bluefin Tuna an example
  • Bottom-feeders all caught together
  • Replacement? Other meat ecologically worse

Eating Lower on Food Chain
  • Article in New York Times
  • Veggie burger now a gourmet item in some NYC
  • We tried some not like beef at all

Japanese Nuclear Crisis
  • Declared to be a Level 7 accident highest
  • Means that radiation left site and evacuation
    measures used
  • Using robots to survey but most work too complex
    for robots
  • Warnings from archeologists about large
    earthquakes and tsunamis not taken seriously
  • Plan to bring site to safe condition in nine
  • Unknown effect on public acceptance

Peak Oil
  • Peak Oil idea that oil production will peak and
    then decline
  • Pattern of previous resources from wood to coal
  • After peak, remaining resource expensive
  • When will this happen for oil? Has it already
  • Science article says non-Opec petroleum is at its
  • Permanent price rise would be the signal

  • Zoos being considered for preservation of
    endangered species
  • Some environmentalists more accepting of invasive
  • Many tactics thought to control them only end up
    spreading them
  • Many species were new at some point
  • Still a controversial approach

  • Idea of fighting cancer indeveloping world

Course Summary
The Human Footprint
  • Total impact of humans
  • Population
  • Urbanization
  • Ecosystem services
  • Food / fish
  • Water
  • Energy / Global Warming
  • Tragedy of Commons
  • Consumption waste
  • Development / disease
  • Land dwelling food
  • Sustainability

The Human Footprint
  • Present problems in many (all?) of these areas
  • Some problems will get worse
  • Population increase of about 50
  • But the poor consume less in some areas
  • Bigger problem
  • Poor countries becoming affluent
  • Therefore, they will consume nearer to our level
  • In some cases (Global Warming), more

The Human Footprint
  • Problems are interlocking
  • One example more irrigation can produce more
    food, but decrease access to water
  • Are we doomed?
  • It could happen
  • But we have faced this type of thing before
  • Hunter-gatherers to Agricultural society
  • Agricultural to Industrial society
  • Maybe we can pull it off again (I think we will)

The Human Footprint
  • How can we get through this large crisis?
  • Absolute Necessities
  • Water
  • Improve efficiency of use (use less)
  • Suit quality to use
  • More and more thorough treatment
  • Regional cooperation for allocation

The Human Footprint
  • Absolute Necessities
  • Food
  • Produce more more land, GMOs, education for
    farmers, better conditions for rural life
  • Is mechanized agriculture sustainable, with its
    intensive use of water, petroleum, fertilizer and
  • Waste less losses to rodents, rotting,
    maldistribution (some too much, others too
  • Eat lower on the food chain
  • I feel we may need all of these, too early to

The Human Footprint
  • Ecosystem
  • Humans need to accept responsibility
  • Quickly learn and get better at being
    responsible research, education
  • Be cautious in the meantime
  • Development and economies
  • Ditto for ecosystem
  • Microloans
  • Take clues from local citizens

The Human Footprint
  • Energy and Global Warming
  • Humans need to accept responsibility
  • Increase efficiency (use less) (higher taxes)
  • Globalization and suburbanization are high-energy
  • More use of electricity
  • Develop alternative sources
  • Learn more
  • Test some geoengineering approaches

The Human Footprint
  • Disease (interacts with development)
  • More worldwide use of vaccines and simple
    preventive measures
  • Healthier habits and better systems in rich
  • Continue research but make new medicines
  • Translational science and medicine applying
    what we know

The Human Footprint
  • Land and urbanization
  • Improve quality of rural life
  • Development improves quality of urban life
  • Property rights for urban squatters
  • Stronger warning systems for disasters
    (mudslides, tsunamis, storms, etc.)

The Human Footprint
  • Improvements to and greater use of online and
    virtual methods (life)
  • Future cannot be freezing in the dark
  • We will survive if we can make a future that
    meets the needs above, and that enough of us
    think is better
  • A mix of solutions government, NGOs,
    entrepreneurs, established businesses

The Human Footprint
  • The biggest uncertainty for me
  • Can we do all of this without a governing body?
  • Role of regional and international cooperation
    will increase
  • Weak and failed governments are a problem (e.g.
    Somalia and Pakistan)

Where are things getting better?
  • Basic health
  • Infant mortality, lifespan
  • Development
  • Many more countries growing their economies
  • More governments becoming accountable to citizens
    Arab Spring
  • Also international community enforcing this
  • Some successes with ecosystem and species
  • Giving local people an economic stake

  • Vocabulary affect and effect
  • affect
  • n. a feeling, emotion or desire (rare)
  • v. to produce an effect
  • effect
  • n. the result of an action
  • v. to bring about, accomplish (rare)
  • The effect will affect us.
  • Sentence Discussion

Final Papers
What should be in final paper
  • Title page
  • Descriptive title for paper
  • Your name
  • Chapters
  • Each Chapter starts on a new page
  • Total 25 pages
  • Works Cited or Works Consulted
  • If Works Consulted, include works cited in it

Writing OrganizationChapter Level
  • Title Chapter number (1, 2, 3, etc) and
    descriptive title (describes content of that
  • Introduction (roadmap)
  • Body makes points, provides support
  • Conclusion (review, conclude or wrap up, so
  • Also open up topic to larger significance and/or
    point to next Chapter

Organization Within Body
  • Organization
  • Treat topics one by one in some order have a
    plan, dont just hop around. Minimize repetition
  • Examples of orders that work
  • Start with a specific example or story, then go
    to what that is an example of (generalize)
  • General to specific
  • Historical order, order of development
  • Logical order give background before or as it
    is needed
  • Combinations a then b, for example
  • A new topic requires a new paragraph.
  • Smooth transitions to prepare the reader and show
    that your thinking is under control, not just

Oral Presentations
  • Include in Handout
  • l. Title and your name
  • 2. Abstract include thesis statement and a
    summary of major findings/ insights
  • 3. Table of Contents of the essay
  • 4. A beginning bibliography for those interested
    in knowing more about your topic

Oral Presentations
  • Questions to address in your oral remarks
  • 5. Did your topic change over the course of
  • 6. What problems did you encounter in doing
    research, and how did you solve them?
  • 7. How did this study contribute to your
    understanding of the future of society and the
  • 8. How was your study interdisciplinary?
  • 9. What did you learn about doing advanced
    research that will be useful in the future?

Oral Presentations
  • Topics you may include if you wish
  • 10. Why did you choose your topic?
  • 11. Why do you think your topic is important?
  • 12. Was about this was hard, easy, interesting,
    boring, fun?
  • 13. Do you feel that you accomplished something

Oral Reports on Papers
  • April 25 last regular class, Oral Reports on
  • Handout
  • Oral Report
  • Handout (bring 10 copies)
  • Schedule

Student Evaluation of Teaching
  • SET info
  • Me David Bowen
  • Course ISP 4860
  • Section 001
  • Call Number 25029
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