Old Problems, New Challenges, Huge Opportunities: Vulnerability and Urgency in a World of Change Andy White, Coordinator Rights and Resources Initiative ECOSOC, 17 April 2008

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Old Problems, New Challenges, Huge
OpportunitiesVulnerability and Urgency in a
World of Change Andy White, CoordinatorRights
and Resources Initiative ECOSOC, 17 April 2008
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Context Insecurity and Urgency

• MDGs overtaken by politically pressing issues of
  insecurity energy, national, environmental
  (climate and water)
• Problems behind MDGs are same as those behind
  insecurity political marginalization, poverty,
  inequity, lack of respect for human rights and
  democratic processes
• Challenges converging on 30 of earths surface
  that is considered forest poor and poorly
  governed
• Rights and democratic governance not only moral
  imperative but social and economic, and
  ecological imperative
• Private capital moving much faster than we can

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Huge Global Risks Undoing of Governments and
Development

• Early stages of biggest economic/political/climati
  c transition in modern history
• Risk of
• Expanded civil conflicts,
• Further social and political marginalization of
  rural and forest peoples
• Continued deforestation and increased carbon
  emission
• Undoing of governments and development
• Havent dealt with past, not yet equipped for the
  future.

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Outline Vulnerability and Urgency

1. Old problems limited rights, poverty, conflict
2. New, global, challenges market/political shifts,
   energy, climate change
3. Huge opportunities local organizations, new
   markets and technologies
4. Urgent steps

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Old Problems (1) Lack of Human, Civil Rights
and Poor Governance

• At least 15 million people lack citizenship
  recognition including all hill tribes of SE
  Asia, most Pygmies of Congo Basin
• Women disproportionately disadvantaged,
  politically, legally, economically and culturally
  not a boutique or luxury issue
• Corruption, limited rule of law, limited
  accountability, judicial redress
• Lack of respect for property rights governments
  claim 75 of worlds forests illegal
  conservation, dispossession and refugees
• Lack of basic public services

Forest areas about 30 of global land area, over
1 billion of worlds poorest, socially and
politically disenfranchised
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Governance ITTO Countries Doing Worse
Questioning Models
The ITTO producer countries score lower in all
categories, and for the 3 represented above, this
difference is statistically significant (.05
double tailed t-test). This tends to show that it
is not merely the presence of forest, but of a
large export-oriented forest industry that is
correlated to poor governance performances.
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Old Problems (2) Extensive Poverty Slow/No
Economic Growth

• Extensive, chronic, poverty in forest areas
  (highest rates)
• ½ of Bottom Billion 58 countries falling
  apart and falling behind (Collier 07)
• growth located in urban, coastal areas
• forest rich countries doing significantly
  worse
• ITTO producer countries doing even worse trade
  NOT the answer

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Old Problems (3) Conflict and Contestation over
Resources
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Forests in Conflict Zones since 1990
Continent forest threatened (million hectares, of total) Population threatened (x 1.000.000)
Africa 130 (53) 52
Latin America 50 (21) 13
South/ Southeast Asia 52 (22) 63
Europe/ Central Asia/ N America 10 (4) -
Total 242 127

• 20 of forest in the tropics experienced
  violent conflict, spread over 29 countries
• Most threatened forest in Africa, most of 127
  million forest dwellers potentially affected live
  in Asia.
• Conflict driven by land in 40 of cases, key
  predictor of return
• Good news, armed conflicts are declining
• Bad news, human rights abuses are continuing at
  same rates
• Unreported news active tenure contestation
  remains the norm

Source Capistrano, de Koning, Yasmi (CIFOR,
RECOFTC), 2007
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New Challenges (1) Fundamental Market Shifts
Walls of Capital and Speculation

• BRICS driving Global Growth
• BRICs overtake the G6 by 2040
• 55 trillion global GDP today, near 80 trillion
  by 2020, 150 trillion by 2100?
• the wall of capital
• Growth in demand for commodities
• Food to double by 2020
• Meat by 50
• Price of sugar doubled, oil, steel and gold
  tripled and copper quadrupled since 2001
• the wall of speculation
• All colliding with poor and poorly governed a
  clash of the commons

Global Economics Goldman Sachs. 2003
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New Challenges (2) Convergence of Food, Fuel,
Fiber Land Pressure, Food Riots

Source Bloomberg, Wood Resources, CIBC World
Markets

• Food, fuel and fiber all competing for the same,
  declining amount of land about 400 million
  available (IIASA 2007), all driving food
  insecurity, riots, conflicts

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Political/Market Concern about Energy Fuelling
Speculation and Subsidies
Projected world biofuels consumption (MToe)

• By 2030 Demand for energy ? 50
• Biofuels increase in investment,
  consumption and area
• Brazil 4.5 million ha by 2016,
• Oil palm in tropics up by 5.5 million ha in
  last 10 years
• 280 million ha for biofuels alone - 2020

2010 2015 2015 2030
With No New Government Measures On Climate Change With No New Government Measures On Climate Change With No New Government Measures On Climate Change With No New Government Measures On Climate Change
Europe US Brazil China India 14.8 14.9 8.3 0.7 0.1 18.0 19.8 10.4 1.5 0.2 26.6 22.8 20.3 7.9 2.4
Total 41.5 54.4 92.4
With Government Measures With Government Measures With Government Measures With Government Measures
Europe US Brazil China India 16.4 16.4 8.6 1.2 0.1 21.5 27.5 11.0 2.7 0.3 35.6 42.9 23.0 13.0 4.5
Total 48.8 73.0 146.7
Source OECD/IEA (2006).
Global Biofuels Financings Q1/05-Q1/07
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New Challenge (3) Climate Change

1. Already happening
2. Unknown impacts and unintended consequences from
   intervention
3. the social justice issue of our generation
   (unfairness in who caused it, who is hurt by it,
   requires fundamental shifts in elite
   consumption)

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Indirect Effects, Social Concerns

1. Adaptation
2. Mitigation

• Continued elite capture/limited effectiveness of
  aid interventions exacerbating tensions

2. Feeds speculation, subsidies and last great
global land grab
3. Continued unfairness, attempts at social
engineering, the new Washington Consensus
3. Who sets the rules?
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Huge Opportunities Wheres the Hope?

• People and their organizations
• entrepreneurship
• holding us all accountable

• Markets
• New opportunities for the poor, shifts and
  domestic demand

• 3. Empowering technologies
• enabling organization, land rights and pro-poor
  enterprises

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What to Do? Urgent Next Steps

• Recognize the urgency
• Rethink, our approaches
• Reorganize, our institutions
• BAU will not deal with the speed and violence
  of social and political upheaval

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What to Do? Urgent Next Steps

• 2. Secure their rights (property, human, gender,
  civil)
• Dramatically ramp up land mapping, negotiation,
  delimitation
• Focus on conflict prone and post-conflict
  countries
• Ensure that REDD and Conflict mechanisms are
  pro-poor and pro-rights
• The least cost approach to REDD?

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What to Do? Urgent Steps

• 3. Support their organizations, their voice, and
  their enterprises
• Encouraging small-scale enterprises (policy and
  regulatory reforms)
• Prioritizing womens rights and groups
• Support community exchanges and capacity building
• Rethink and refocus development models and
  approaches

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Challenges never so daunting, opportunity for a
dramatic difference never so great Speed and
Violence We must do things differently www.righ
tsandresources.org