The%20Next%20Generation%20Air%20Transportation%20System%20(NGATS)

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The Next Generation Air Transportation System
(NGATS)

• Bruce Carmichael
• Forecasting Team Co-lead
• Weather IPT
• 303-497-8406

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What We Face

• 60-80 of traffic delays have a weather
  connection
• If traffic counts grow anywhere near projections
  (JPDO NGATS), ability of current system to
  accommodate growth is essentially impossible
• System breakdown unavoidable unless capacity
  grows by 2 to 3 times
• Caveat we must plan for a future still full of
  unknowns, never-the-less (airline difficulties,
  terrorism, natural calamity, etc.)
• The system must have much more capacity and be
  safe

3
NGATS ORGANIZATIONS

• Department of Transportation
• Federal Aviation Administration
• National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• Department of Commerce
• Department of Defense
• Department of Homeland Security
• Office of Science and Technology Planning
• The NGATS Institute

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2025 NGATS Concept
Operating Principles

• Its about the users
• System-wide transformation
• Prognostic approach to safety assessment
• Globally harmonized
• Environmentally compatible to foster continued
  growth

Key Capabilities

• Net-Enabled Information Access
• Performance-Based Services
• Weather-Assimilated Decision Making
• Layered, Adaptive Security
• Broad-Area Precision Navigation
• Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations
• Equivalent Visual Operations
• Super Density Operations

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System-Wide TransformationInnovation Across All
Lines of Development
Policy Change/Creation Organizational
Innovation Culture Acceptance
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Net-Enabled Information Access
Global secure access, information handled
according to communities of interest

• Shared Situation Awareness
• Real-time free-flow of info from private,
  commercial, government sources, integrated
  internationally
• Tailored, responsive and secure
• Push/pull processes
• Common awareness of day-to-day ops, events,
  crises
• Aircraft are integral nodes in network
• Integrated cooperative air traffic and
  non-cooperative national security surveillance

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Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations
Adjust airspace configuration to meet user needs

• 4D trajectories (including taxi and roll-out) are
  basis for planning and execution
• Machine-based trajectory analysis and separation
  assurance
• Includes environmental performance throughout all
  phases of aircraft operations
• Airspace configuration driven by DoD/DHS
  requirements, domestic international user
  needs, requirements for special-use airspace,
  safety, environment, overall efficiency
• Airspace reconfigurable during day of operations
• Users contract for airspace access and service

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Aircraft Trajectory-Based OperationsManagement-b
y-Trajectory
Separation Mgmt Domain
Tactical Domain
Strategic Domain
Airspace Organization and Management
Airport Operations
Airspace User Operations
Demand EnvironmentalPerformance Balancing
Information Management
ATM Service Delivery Management
Conformance Monitoring
Projected Profiles Planned Profiles
Agreement
User Requested Profile
Clearance
Weather, Aggregate Flow, Airport
Configuration/Infrastructure

• Key Issues are functional allocation between
• Automation and humans
• Aircraft operators and service provider

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Aircraft Trajectory-Based OperationsEvaluator

• Integrates/communicates weather, security,
  defense, environmental, safety, international
  considerations, other information
• Users post/update desired 4D trajectories in
  common system that continuously evaluates mutual
  compatibility
• Predicts potential over demand situations, in
  multiple capacity dimensionstraffic density,
  environmental, security, etc.
• Works across all time horizons from
  days/weeks/months prior to flight up to
  separation management (20 minutes or less)
• Supports distributed decision-making environment
  where players have clear, agreed-upon roles and
  interactions

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Equivalent Visual Operations
Increasing capacity from todays non-visual
conditions

• Aircraft perform "equivalent visual" operations
  in non-visual conditions (achieve VFR capacity
  under these conditions)
• ATM provider delegates maintain separation
  responsibility to aircraft operators
• Requires timely, high fidelity information on
  nearby aircraft, weather, etc
• System-wide availability at all air portals
• With appropriately capable landside (including
  security)
• Greater predictability of operations at busy
  airports, including ground operations

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Weather Assimilated into Decisions
Common weather picture across NGATS

• Fuse global weather observations and forecasts
  into single information system, dynamically
  update as needed
• Tens of 1000s of sensors (airborne ground)
  feed 100s of forecast models
• Learning automation accounts for weather and its
  uncertainties in managing aircraft trajectories
• Identify hazardous weather real-time
• Assimilated into NGATS decision loops
• Total integration via machine-to-machine
• Critical decision system time scales using both
  probabilistic and deterministic weather info
• Optimized to maximize available weather-favorable
  airspace
• Terminal weather impacts including ground/ramp
  ops and adaptability due to wind shift changes

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2025 NGATS Vision

• The number and complexity of NGATS command and
  control decisions at any given moment will
  require the total system to be largely automated
• This requires weather information to be passed
  digitally, rather than as text or graphic
  products
• The system will use smart pull technology to
  obtain required weather information for any given
  decision
• Traditional aviation weather products will be
  reduced or outright eliminated (e.g., Terminal
  Aerodrome Forecasts, Area Forecasts)

As needed presentation of three-dimensional
weather information, projected into the future,
will allow the National Airspace Systems
operational systems to make weather-savvy
decisions
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Weather in the Future

• Common weather picture A data cube will
  ensure NGATS users share consistent information
• Its not about looking at a lot of sensor data,
  its about providing an accurate diagnosis and
  forecast of phenomena that are important to
  aviation
• Weather information fully integrated into all
  ground- and cockpit-based decision support
  systems/tools
• 4DT based on current and forecast weather
• Real time weather updates posted and pushed to
  all impacted subscribers
• Probabilistic forecasts enable prognostic,
  risk-based decisions on allowing aircraft to
  tactically traverse certain weather phenomena
• Enables capacity management
• Opens more airspace to the system

DST algorithms are owned by the operators not
weather. Weather is just one input to the
algorithm
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NGATS/JPDO Aviation Weather IPT

• Observations (improved suite)
• Forecasts (new science, automation, probability)
• Dissemination (4D Weather Information System)
• Integration (critical joining of weather with
  ATM)
• Aircraft Mitigation (harden aircraft for weather)
• Training (just-in-time)
• Policy
• Systems Engineering

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Emphasis and Priorities4D Weather -- Official
Product of the Future
1
X
X
18
Z
Y
12
0
X
Probability Distribution Function of Magnitude
1830

• Convection
• Turbulence
• Icing
• Snowfall
• Ceiling
• Visibility
• Radiation from Space

• Wind Speed
• Wind Direction
• Temperature
• Humidity
• Noise Propagation Potential
• Airport Plume Concentration
• Atmospheric Sensitivity to Exhaust

• Volcanic Ash Concentration
• Wake/Vortex Dissipation Potential

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Production of aviation weather products the
JPDO vision

• This plan includes many factors
• in strategic and tactical airspace
• management, such as
• Aircraft separation
• Hazardous weather separation
• Time en route
• Fuel burn
• Noise impact
• Environmental impact

Constantly Refreshed
Statistical Systems
Automated Decision Support Systems
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Aviation Weather Dissemination, 2025Foundation
for Net-Enabled Weather Operations
Air-Air
Rides on Net Enabled Information System
AIR-Ground
A-G/A-A I/F
Urgent Wx
Aircraft Networks and Wx Sensors/Displays
Net-Centric Enterprise Services and Network
Shared Services
Community of Interest
A-G/A-A I/F
Ground-Ground
Controllers
A/C pulled and pushed Wx
AOC
Displays
Community of Interest
Displays
Displays
Aircraft Wx Obs And Wx requests
Evaluator and DSS Wx Processed into ATM
Decisions With Drill Down Available
Communities of Interest
community of Interest
Community of Interest
Authoritative Wx Pulled and Pushed
Forecasting Multi-sensor QAed Obs Assimilated
Obs Forecast, Nowcast, Diagnosis
Obs to push and Pull customers
Training
Requested Obs
Airports
Ground/Space Based Observations
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Summary

• Plan to support to broad range of possible NGATS
  futures
• Actual evolution to target curb-to-curb concept
  likely will consider multiple alternate paths
• Develop systems to support those alternatives
• Transition from todays system to future system
• Provide information that support common
  situational awareness
• Intelligent fusion of data, models, and
  predictors into a single authoritative data base
• Common understanding of the definitions and
  limitations of the information elements
• Enable integration of weather information into
  DSS
• Develop reliable probabilistic information
• Develop generic information products that can be
  customized to meet the needs of service provider
  and customer systems
• Develop new products jointly with DSS community