Dealing With A Future Which Is in Perpetual Construction---Washington State Provisional Projection by Age, Sex And Race/Ethnicity: 2000-2030

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Dealing With A Future Which Is in Perpetual
Construction---Washington State Provisional
Projection by Age, Sex And Race/Ethnicity
2000-2030

• Office of Financial Management
• Washington State
• March 30, 2005

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Introduction

• Philosophy Maximize knowledge and minimize
  subjective bias
• Projection categories OMB new race/ethnicity
  categories, gender, five year age groups, and
  single year between 15-19.
• Method cohort component method with all the
  components being projected separately
• Base year data NCHS 2000 estimates
• Control totals each component is controlled to
  the state total

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Main Steps for Projection Procedure for State
Population by Age, Gender and Race/Ethnicity
Major Data Input Births 95-2000 Deaths
95-2000 Migration 95-2000
Fertility assumptions Mortality
assumptions Migration assumptions
Calculate ASFR, TFR Calculate Mortality
rates Calculate migration rates
Projecting births, deaths and migration
2000-2030
Control projected births, deaths and migration
to state totals, then add all the components
into the master file
Project Non Hispanic And Hispanic population
Project 15-19 single year Gender, Non
Hispanic/ Hispanic
Project multiracial category
Produce pyramid for Evaluation make adjustment
if necessary
Final report
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Adjust Black Population in NCHS 2000 Estimates
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Fertility Assumptions Before and Current

• Prior to the current projection
• Assume 95-2000 ASFR for 2000-05 period
• Use 2000-05 Women 15-49 and 0-4 year old to
  recalculate ASFR to be used for 2005-10 period,
  and so on.
• Then control to state projected total births for
  the period.
• Concerns
• Only the fertility assumptions for the total
  women at child bearing age are reflected. We
  assume that the fertility pattern for each one of
  the minority groups is likely to change in the
  future. Such variance in different race groups
  are not reflected in the method.

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Current Fertility Assumptions

• The ASFR for 2000 is calculated with the existing
  method
• Child-women ratio is the second method
• Census Bureau's national fertility projection has
  been incorporated to develop adjustment factors.
• United Nations fertility data for Southeast Asian
  and Mexico are used to assess the fertility rates
  for Hispanics and API.
• Assimilation theory is adopted to bring down the
  high fertility rate of Hispanic origin
  population.

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TFR by Race/Ethnicity
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Migration Assumptions and Methods

• Total migration by race
• Migration is controlled to the state total
  projected migration, so the crucial issue is to
  get the racial distribution right
• 1990-2000 residual migration is calculated with
  standard survival rate method.
• Age and gender distribution
• The 1995-2000 in and out migration are used to
  get base for international migration as well as
  the age and gender distribution among each race.
• School enrolment (grade 2-7t vs. 3-8t1) between
  1981-2003 by race is used as an indicator for
  future migration change.

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Change of School Enrolment Grade 2-7t vs. 3-8t1
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Change of School Enrolment Grade 2-7t vs. 3-8t1
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Migration Assumptions and Methods

• For the long term domestic and international
  migrations are projected separately immigration
  assumptions are built based on Bureaus 1999
  immigration framework. Washington State foreign
  born, and 1980-2000 immigration information from
  INS are also used as indicators.
• Domestic migration is derived as residual of
  total and international migration. Age, sex and
  race distribution shall be based on 95-2000
  migration from census 2000.
• Total migration is controlled to the state total
  migration projection.

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Mortality Assumption

• Washington mortality by race follows the national
  trend. NCHS 2000 life tables for white, black
  and other race are used for 2000-2010.
• After 2010, the gain in life expectancy will
  gradually slow down. No sufficient information
  to distinguish the change by racial groups, the
  trend for total population by gender is adopted.
• Robert Schoen Basic Life Table method is used to
  calculate life expectancy of Hispanic origin
  population.

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Extract the Multiracial Population

• Difference between 2000 MR and adjusted NCHS 2000
  estimate is controlled to the Multiracial
  population in 2000 MR file.
• Project 0-4 year old multiracial based on 1990
  and 2000 under one year old in multiracial
  families.
• Add the projected 0-4 to each projection period
  and forward surviving the rest of the age groups.
• Raking to the state level total multiracial
  population which is projected separately.

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Separate the Hispanic and Non Hispanic

• Use projected Hispanic births as base
• Use CWR to estimate 0-4 year old migrants by
  race/ethnicity, and percent of total migration is
  calculated to project future migration of the age
  cohort .
• Applied survival rate to (12) projected
• 0-4 Hispanic
• Survive Hispanic by age and gender to the next
  projection period and add (3) for 0-4 year old.
• Subtract Hispanic from total to get Non Hispanic

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• Data and documentation can be found at the
  following URL
• http//www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/race/provisional_project
  ions.htm