Old Problems, New Challenges, Huge Opportunities: Vulnerability and Urgency in a World of Change And - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Old Problems, New Challenges, Huge Opportunities: Vulnerability and Urgency in a World of Change And


Good news, armed conflicts are declining ... Unreported news: active tenure contestation remains the norm ... Source: Bloomberg, Wood Resources, CIBC World Markets ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Old Problems, New Challenges, Huge Opportunities: Vulnerability and Urgency in a World of Change And

Old Problems, New Challenges, Huge
OpportunitiesVulnerability and Urgency in a
World of Change Andy White, CoordinatorRights
and Resources Initiative ECOSOC, 17 April 2008
Context Insecurity and Urgency
  • MDGs overtaken by politically pressing issues of
    insecurity energy, national, environmental
    (climate and water)
  • Problems behind MDGs are same as those behind
    insecurity political marginalization, poverty,
    inequity, lack of respect for human rights and
    democratic processes
  • Challenges converging on 30 of earths surface
    that is considered forest poor and poorly
  • Rights and democratic governance not only moral
    imperative but social and economic, and
    ecological imperative
  • Private capital moving much faster than we can

Huge Global Risks Undoing of Governments and
  • Early stages of biggest economic/political/climati
    c transition in modern history
  • Risk of
  • Expanded civil conflicts,
  • Further social and political marginalization of
    rural and forest peoples
  • Continued deforestation and increased carbon
  • Undoing of governments and development
  • Havent dealt with past, not yet equipped for the

Outline Vulnerability and Urgency
  • Old problems limited rights, poverty, conflict
  • New, global, challenges market/political shifts,
    energy, climate change
  • Huge opportunities local organizations, new
    markets and technologies
  • Urgent steps

Old Problems (1) Lack of Human, Civil Rights
and Poor Governance
  • At least 15 million people lack citizenship
    recognition including all hill tribes of SE
    Asia, most Pygmies of Congo Basin
  • Women disproportionately disadvantaged,
    politically, legally, economically and culturally
    not a boutique or luxury issue
  • Corruption, limited rule of law, limited
    accountability, judicial redress
  • Lack of respect for property rights governments
    claim 75 of worlds forests illegal
    conservation, dispossession and refugees
  • Lack of basic public services

Forest areas about 30 of global land area, over
1 billion of worlds poorest, socially and
politically disenfranchised
Governance ITTO Countries Doing Worse
Questioning Models
The ITTO producer countries score lower in all
categories, and for the 3 represented above, this
difference is statistically significant (.05
double tailed t-test). This tends to show that it
is not merely the presence of forest, but of a
large export-oriented forest industry that is
correlated to poor governance performances.
Old Problems (2) Extensive Poverty Slow/No
Economic Growth
  • Extensive, chronic, poverty in forest areas
    (highest rates)
  • ½ of Bottom Billion 58 countries falling
    apart and falling behind (Collier 07)
  • growth located in urban, coastal areas
  • forest rich countries doing significantly
  • ITTO producer countries doing even worse trade
    NOT the answer

Old Problems (3) Conflict and Contestation over
Forests in Conflict Zones since 1990
  • 20 of forest in the tropics experienced
    violent conflict, spread over 29 countries
  • Most threatened forest in Africa, most of 127
    million forest dwellers potentially affected live
    in Asia.
  • Conflict driven by land in 40 of cases, key
    predictor of return
  • Good news, armed conflicts are declining
  • Bad news, human rights abuses are continuing at
    same rates
  • Unreported news active tenure contestation
    remains the norm

Source Capistrano, de Koning, Yasmi (CIFOR,
RECOFTC), 2007
New Challenges (1) Fundamental Market Shifts
Walls of Capital and Speculation
  • BRICS driving Global Growth
  • BRICs overtake the G6 by 2040
  • 55 trillion global GDP today, near 80 trillion
    by 2020, 150 trillion by 2100?
  • the wall of capital
  • Growth in demand for commodities
  • Food to double by 2020
  • Meat by 50
  • Price of sugar doubled, oil, steel and gold
    tripled and copper quadrupled since 2001
  • the wall of speculation
  • All colliding with poor and poorly governed a
    clash of the commons

Global Economics Goldman Sachs. 2003
New Challenges (2) Convergence of Food, Fuel,
Fiber Land Pressure, Food Riots

Source Bloomberg, Wood Resources, CIBC World
  • Food, fuel and fiber all competing for the same,
    declining amount of land about 400 million
    available (IIASA 2007), all driving food
    insecurity, riots, conflicts

Political/Market Concern about Energy Fuelling
Speculation and Subsidies
Projected world biofuels consumption (MToe)
  • By 2030 Demand for energy ? 50
  • Biofuels increase in investment,
    consumption and area
  • Brazil 4.5 million ha by 2016,
  • Oil palm in tropics up by 5.5 million ha in
    last 10 years
  • 280 million ha for biofuels alone - 2020

Source OECD/IEA (2006).
Global Biofuels Financings Q1/05-Q1/07
New Challenge (3) Climate Change
  • Already happening
  • Unknown impacts and unintended consequences from
  • the social justice issue of our generation
    (unfairness in who caused it, who is hurt by it,
    requires fundamental shifts in elite

Indirect Effects, Social Concerns
  • Adaptation
  • Mitigation
  • Continued elite capture/limited effectiveness of
    aid interventions exacerbating tensions

2. Feeds speculation, subsidies and last great
global land grab
3. Continued unfairness, attempts at social
engineering, the new Washington Consensus
3. Who sets the rules?
Huge Opportunities Wheres the Hope?
  • People and their organizations
  • entrepreneurship
  • holding us all accountable
  • Markets
  • New opportunities for the poor, shifts and
    domestic demand
  • 3. Empowering technologies
  • enabling organization, land rights and pro-poor

What to Do? Urgent Next Steps
  • Recognize the urgency
  • Rethink, our approaches
  • Reorganize, our institutions
  • BAU will not deal with the speed and violence
    of social and political upheaval

What to Do? Urgent Next Steps
  • 2. Secure their rights (property, human, gender,
  • Dramatically ramp up land mapping, negotiation,
  • Focus on conflict prone and post-conflict
  • Ensure that REDD and Conflict mechanisms are
    pro-poor and pro-rights
  • The least cost approach to REDD?

What to Do? Urgent Steps
  • 3. Support their organizations, their voice, and
    their enterprises
  • Encouraging small-scale enterprises (policy and
    regulatory reforms)
  • Prioritizing womens rights and groups
  • Support community exchanges and capacity building
  • Rethink and refocus development models and


Challenges never so daunting, opportunity for a
dramatic difference never so great Speed and
Violence We must do things differently www.righ
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