Who in the Baltic Sea Region is affected by Climate Change

1
Who in the Baltic Sea Region is affected by
Climate Change?
ASTRAs preliminary results of vulnerable sectors

• ASTRA Stakeholder Workshop
• 26 October 2006
• Gdansk Klaus Eisenack
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

2
Overview

• Objective of talk give an overview of some
  potential exposure units and provide terminology
• Objective of workshop assessment by
  participants, brainstorming on adaptation options

Urban area
Water
Coastline
Tourism
Energy
Transport
3
General Observations

• Climate Change is mainly framed in terms of GHG
  mitigation and impacts
• Since knowledge about the extend of many climate
  change impacts on the local scale is
  quantitatively uncertain
• adaptation has to focus on the sensitivity of
  exposure units and increasing adaptive capacity.

4
Vulnerability Assessment

• Who is vulnerable to what?

Exposure unit e.g. urban area, coastline, water
supply, energy sector, transportation, tourism
Impact e.g. flooding, sea level rise, less snow
sensitivity
exposure
adaptive capacity
Mitigation
Adaptation
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Urban Area

• Urban settlements, inhabitants and infrastructure
• Exposure Units
• Private and public buildings
• Places, cultural heritage
• Communication infrastructure(consequently
  rescue services)
• Waste treatment
• Potential Impacts
• River floods extreme precipitationevents,
  snowmelt, increasedaverage streamflow, risky
  timeshifting from spring to winter
• Storm surges wind,tides / sea level rise

6
Urban Area

• Exposure Units
• Private and public buildings
• Places, cultural heritage
• Population
• Potential Impacts
• Hail and wind storms

7
Urban Area

• Exposure Units
• Population
• In particular old, very young, chronically ill
• Potential Impacts
• More frequent heat wavesdeaths in summer
• Less deaths in winter
• Air quality problems (formation ofpollutants due
  to higher temperatureand sunlight)

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Urban Area

• Further Exposure Units
• Waste treatment
• Infrastructure (communication, transport, water,
  energy, etc.)
• Further Potential Impacts
• Landslides
• Rainfall, humidity, heat, insulation changed
  stress on buildings

9
Coastline

• Coastal shores and shores of large rivers and
  lakes
• Exposure Units
• Coastal infrastructure
• Flood protection infrastructure
• Coastal ecosystems
• Cliffs
• Impacts
• Sea level rise
• Storm surges
• River floods
• Coastal erosion,changed sedimentation patterns

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Water

• Water for drinking, irrigation and industrial use
• Exposure Units
• Water utilities
• Water supply systems and infrastructure
• Sewage systems
• Public health
• Water intensive economic sectors
• Impacts
• Flooding pollution, damage to infrastructure
• Sea level rise salinization
• Higher temperatures (with pollution) quality,
  eutrophication, algae blooms
• Increasing average streamflow and extremes,
  changed timing of water supply (snowmelt),
  droughts changed supply
• Increasing temperatures, irrigation during
  droughts increasing demand

11
Energy

• Energy for household, public and industrial use
• Exposure Units
• Transmission lines
• Hydropower
• Wind power
• Energy utilities
• Impacts
• Storms and hail (transmission lines, wind energy)
• Changed timing and increasedaverage streamflow
• Flooding damage to infrastructure
• Higher temperatures (cooling water, efficiencyof
  thermal electric generation,transmission
  capabilities)
• Higher temperatures and urban heat
  islandsincreased energy demand in
  summer,decreased in winter

12
Transport

• Transportation sector and infrastructure
• Exposure Units
• Harbours (transport conditions)
• Airports (accidents, delays,indirect effects
  from rescheduling)
• Railway (delays,indirect effects from
  rescheduling)
• Road traffic (accidents, winter maintenance)
• Transport infrastructure
• Impacts
• Extremes precipitation, rainstorms
• Extreme temperatures (mechanical failure)
• Humidity (fog), snow, sea ice
• Wind conditions
• Floods

13
Tourism

• Local tourism business and tourism industry
• Exposure Units
• Winter tourism / summer tourism
• Coastal tourist facilities
• Dependency on coastal resources
• Impacts
• More precipitation andchanged sunshine patterns
• Warmer summers,warmer water (and changed water
  quality)
• Warmer winter snow conditions
• Sea level rise
• Flooding
• Changes in alternative destinations

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Adaptation

• What is the adaptive capacity of exposure units?
• Who is responsible for managing them?
• Who can support them? Are there strategic
  alliances?
• Who will hinder them? What can be done to
  overcome barriers?
• Are national programmes needed?
• Are local key-actors needed?

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Thank You for Your Attention!

• Klaus Eisenack
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
• Telegraphenberg C4
• 14473 Potsdam
• Germany
• Email
• kropp_at_pik-potsdam.de
• eisenack_at_pik-potsdam.de

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Make a Choice

• Urban Area Urban settlements, inhabitants and
  infrastructure
• Coastline Coastal shores and shores of large
  rivers and lakes
• Water Water for drinking, irrigation and
  industrial use
• Energy Energy for household, public and
  industrial use
• Transport Transportation sector and
  infrastructure
• Tourism Local tourism business and tourism
  industry