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Title: Welcome to the Asian Monsoon Year 2008 (AMY08) International Workshop April 23rd-25th, 2007 Beijing, China


1
Welcome to theAsian Monsoon Year 2008
(AMY08)International WorkshopApril 23rd-25th,
2007Beijing, China
2
  • Sponsors
  • Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
  • Ministry of Science and Technology of China
    (MOST)
  • China Association for Science and Technology
    (CAST)
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China
    (NSFC)
  • China Meteorological Administration (CMA)
  • Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese
    Academy of Sciences
  • State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for
    Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid
    Dynamics (LASG), IAP, CAS

3
More than 50 scientists from 13 countries and
regions are attending this workshop.
  • We are honored to have the following
    Distinguished Guests attending the Opening
    Ceremony
  • Prof. Ye, Duzheng, former WCRP/JSC member, 48th
    IMO Prize winner and the 2004 Chinese Supreme
    National Science and Technology Prize winner
  • Dr. Zheng, Guoguang, Administrator, CMA
  • Dr. Shao, Liqun, Director, Department of High and
    New Technology Development and Industrialization,
    MOST
  • Dr. Zhang, Xian-En, Director, Department of Basic
    Research, MOST
  • Prof. Tao, Shiyan, former WCRP/JSC member,
    monsoon expert
  • Dr. Chang, Xu, Deputy Director General, Bureau of
    Science and Technology for Resources and
    Environmental, CAS
  • Mr. Lu, Zewei, Deputy Director, Earth Science
    Division and
  • Prof. Chang, C.P., Chairman, WWRP/TMR Monsoon
    Panel, Distinguished Professor of Meteorology,
    Naval Postgraduate School

4
  • Self introduction
  • Agenda approval

Session 1 Introduction of relevant programs
1.5 days Session 2 Coordinate the field
experiments observation sites, periods,
variables and the need of Intensified Observation
Periods (IOP) Session3 Discuss the data
sharing, assembling, quality controlling and
assimilation-- 0.5 day Session 4 Modelling and
prediction 0.5 day Session 5 IMY Set up
working groups and Scientific Steering Committee
0.5 day.
5
Speech delivered by distinguished guest
  • Dr. Zhang, Xian-En, Director, Department of Basic
    Research, MOST
  • Dr. Zheng, Guoguang, Administrator, CMA
  • Dr. Chang, Xu, Deputy Director General, Bureau of
    Science and Technology for Resources and
    Environmental, CAS
  • Prof. Ye, Duzheng, former WCRP/JSC member, 48th
    IMO Prize winner, 2004 Chinese Supreme National
    Science and Technology Prize winner
  • Prof. Chang, C.P., Chairman, WWRP/TMR Monsoon
    Panel, Distinguished Professor of Meteorology,
    Naval Postgraduate School

6
Open Ceremony Closed.
  • Thank You!

7
Session 1 Introduction of relevant
programs Chairs C. P. Chang and Tandong Yao
8
PROVISIONAL TIME TABLE ZANZIBAR, TANZANIA, 26-30
MARCH 2007
TIME Tuesday 27 March
0830-0930 2. WCRP Review of Cross-cutting Activities (1 hour each topic, max 30 m talk-speaker underlined) Chair Church /Rap Griggs Anthropogenic Climate Change (Ramaswamy)
0930-1030 Atmospheric chemistry and climate (Ravishankara)
1030-1100 Coffee
1100-1200 Monsoons/YoTC (Wu)
1200-1230 Decadal Prediction (Palmer) new cross-cutting topic (30 minutes)
1230-1400 Lunch
1400-1500 Chair Ramaswamy /Rap Yasunari Extreme Events(Busalacchi)
1500-1600 IPY (Goodison) Sealevel
1600-1630 Chai
1630-1730 Seasonal Prediction (Kirtman)
JSC Rapporteur is tasked to work with the JPS
Secretariat (Dr Ryabinin) to ensure that all
issues recommendations are noted and items
agreed captured
9
Monsoon and the Year of Tropical
Convection-WCRP JSC-XXVIII
Guoxiong WU, Richard Lawford and Howard Cattle
27 March, 2007 Zanzibar
10
Outlines
1. Science Significance 2. WCRP Monsoon
Activities 3. Emerging Activities in the AA
Monsoon Region 4. Recommendations to the JSC 5.
Decision of WCRP/JSC (draft)
11
1. Science Significance
  • Monsoon- one of the central components of the
    climate system
  • influence the global climate system
  • has distinct regional characteristics
  • Monsoonal circulations dominate south and east
    Asia and are also significant in Africa and the
    Americas.

12
  • The capability to predict the onset and
    intensity of monsoons would enable societies to
    mitigate their negative impacts and to maximize
    their benefits.
  • Facilitating the development of effective
    monsoon research and prediction services would
    enable WCRP to demonstrate relevance to the
    governments responsible for many of the countries
    with the largest populations and the greatest
    vulnerability to poverty.
  • Accurate monsoon forecasts on different time
    scales could enable aid agencies to more
    effectively administer their programs.
  • It is critical that WCRP addresses the monsoon
    prediction issue through regional studies as well
    as global studies aimed at a comprehensive
    understanding of the role of monsoons in the
    climate system and an assessment of the
    vulnerability of these regional monsoon systems
    to global change

13
Major monsoons systems of the world
EAM
NAMS
IM
WAM
AUM
SAMS
NDVI image for 21-31 August 2000, from Pathfinder
AVHRR
NDVI surface vegetation
14
Outlines
1. Science Significance 2. WCRP Monsoon
Activities 3. Emerging Activities in the AA
Monsoon Region 4. Recommendations to the JSC 5.
Decision of WCRP/JSC (draft)
15
2. WCRP Monsoon Activities
Organization and governance of WCRP
Asia Africa N. America S. America
CLIVAR SSGs cross-cutting AAMP VACS (AMMA) VAMOS (NAME,MESA,VOCALS) VAMOS (NAME,MESA,VOCALS)
GEWEX SSGs cross-cutting CEOP/CIMS coordinating global scale and each of the Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHPs) providing input along with GMPP and GRP CEOP/CIMS coordinating global scale and each of the Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHPs) providing input along with GMPP and GRP CEOP/CIMS coordinating global scale and each of the Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHPs) providing input along with GMPP and GRP CEOP/CIMS coordinating global scale and each of the Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHPs) providing input along with GMPP and GRP
CLiC role of the snow/ice cover of the Tibetan Plateau, role of the cold Asian continent in the Asian winter monsoon. role of the snow/ice cover of the Tibetan Plateau, role of the cold Asian continent in the Asian winter monsoon. role of the snow/ice cover of the Tibetan Plateau, role of the cold Asian continent in the Asian winter monsoon. role of the snow/ice cover of the Tibetan Plateau, role of the cold Asian continent in the Asian winter monsoon.
16
Monsoon Studies launched by WCRP
Asia Africa N. America S. America
CLIVAR SCSMEX AMMA WAM NAME/ VOCALS MESA
GEWEX CSEs GAME CATCH GAPP LBA
launched by WMO/ TMRP
17
CLIVAR and GEWEX coordinate studies in the three
primary monsoon regions
  • Africa AMMA s focus on West African Monsoon
    (WAM) and its variability with an emphasis on
    daily-inter-annual timescales
  • Asia-Australia directed at understanding the
    processes responsible for the onset, evolution
    and termination of the monsoon
  • Americas emphasizes the determination of the
    sources and limits of predictability of warm
    season precipitation.

18
What was the NAME 2004 Field Campaign?
  • The NAME 2004 Field Campaign was an unprecedented
    opportunity to gather extensive atmospheric,
    oceanic, and land-surface observations in the
    core region of the North American Monsoon over
    NW Mexico, SW United States, and adjacent oceanic
    areas.

19
NAME 2006 Accomplishments
  • Field Program and Datasets
  • NAME 2004 Data Archive (284 datasets 0.5 TB)
    Field Catalog (0.5M files) completed at NCAR/EOL
  • Data Access http//www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/n
    ame/
  • NAME Value Added Products completed (e.g.
    precipitation and upper-air composite datasets
    multi-sensor SST analyses and land surface
    datasets)
  • Modeling and Applications Studies
  • Analysis of NAME 2004 field observations.
  • Impact of NAME 2004 data on NCEP operational
    analyses.
  • Assessments of global regional model
    simulations of the 2004 monsoon (NAMAP2).
  • Relative influence of oceanic land surface
    bcs on seasonal prediction (CPT)

20
CLARIS A Europe-South America Network for
Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies
IAI Ecosystem, Biodiversity, Land Use and
Cover, and Water Resources
NCAR (NSF) Collaborations during Field Experiment
CIC-GEF Framework Program for the sustainable
management of the La Plata Basin water
resources, In relation to climate variability
and change
21
  • Outline
  • Motivations for LPB
  • LPB priority areas
  • Integration efforts
  • Implementation of activities
  • Data collection
  • Monitoring
  • Field Experiment
  • Modeling / CC
  • Future steps

22
  • African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
  • Afrikanske Monsun Multidisiplinære Analyser
  • Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse
  • Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano
  • Afrikanischer Monsun Multidisziplinäre Analysen
  • Analisis Multidisciplinar de los Monzones
    Africanos
  • Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson
    Africaine

23
AREA WHERE THE AMMA FIELD CAMPAIGN TOOK PLACE IN
THE SUMMER OF 2006
Tindouf
The radisounding network will be upgraded.
5 LIDARs will be installed.
12 surface flux stations are to be deployed.
  • Research aircraft
  • D-F20
  • F-F20
  • F-ATR
  • UK-BAe146

AMMA mesoscale sites
US-Ron Brown, F-Atalante, D-Meteor
24
The work-plan is geared towards multidisciplinary
research
The human dimension
The geophysical sphere
25
CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)
  • Objectives
  • To provide better understanding of fundamental
    physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle,
    intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions
    around the world
  • To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP
    data in providing a pathway for model physics
    evaluation and improvement

CIMS Working Group Co-Chairs W. Lau, J.
Masumoto R. Mechoso, J. Marengo, H. Berbery, M.
Bollasina, T. Yasunari, Y. K. Xue, T. Satomura ,
P. Glecker, Y. Wang, J. Potter, B.K. Basu, B.
Burton, A. Barros
26
WCRP Monsoon modeling and prediction studies
GEWEX/CEOP
  • WGCM, WGNE, GMPP
  • The physical processes that control the monsoons
    systems and their prediction are at the core of
    modelling activities
  • CEOP Inter-monsoon Model Studies (CIMS),
    including Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation-Climate
    (iLEAPSIGAC)
  • GLACE-2 project will examine the role of the
    land-surface in the predictability of monsoons
  • GMPP studies of convection parameterization in
    models will improve monsoon prediction.

27
Year of coordinated Observing, modeling and
ForecastingAddressing the Challenge of
Organized Tropical Convection
A key overarching issue for monsoon prediction
is the fundamental need for improved
representation of tropical convection.
A Joint WCRP/THORPEX Proposed Activity
Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)
This proposal arose from a recommendation from
the THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop on Organization
and Maintenance of Tropical Convection and the
MJO, held in Trieste in March 2006. If
implemented in 2008, this initiative would be a
WCRP/THORPEX contribution to the UN Year of
Planet Earth.
28
YoTC
Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) activity
is intended to exploit the vast amounts of
existing and emerging observational and
computational resources in conjunction with the
development of new high resolution modelling
frameworks to advance the characterization,
diagnosis, modelling and prediction of
multi-scale convective/dynamic interactions and
processes, including the two-way interaction
between tropical and extra-tropical
weather/climate.
Prof. J. Slingo is going to provide more details
29
Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling and
Forecasting Of Tropical Convection
  • Potential Target Phenomena
  • Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-Advances in our
    modeling capabilities in the MJO are expected to
    lead to significant untapped predictability in
    both tropical weather forecasts, monsoon onsets
    and breaks, extra-tropical weather, and provide a
    bridge between weather and climate predictions.
  • Convectively Coupled Waves (CCWs) - Considered to
    be important building blocks of tropical
    convective variability and its organization
    (including the MJO), it is essential that such
    fundamental modes of variability be properly
    represented in our weather and climate models.
  • Easterly Waves - An important triggering
    mechanisms for tropical storms and cyclones, this
    organizing mechanism is crucial for properly
    forecasting high impact events as well as
    simulating an important land-atmosphere-ocean
    interaction and its impact on mean state features
    (e.g., ITCZ).
  • Diurnal Cycle - Our shortcomings in representing
    arguably the most basic and strongest forced mode
    of variability demands attention. Moreover,
    studies indicate that the diurnal scale can
    rectify onto longer time scale processes.
  • Monsoons -These are complex multi-scale processes
    and within the proposed activity could be
    considered as the ultimate challenge or
    integrating theme as their variability is
    strongly influenced by the diurnal cycle, CCWs,
    the MJO, and land-atmosphere-ocean interaction.

30
Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling and
Forecasting Of Tropical Convection
ERRORS
2007
2008
2009
2010
diurnal cycle, synoptic systems, intraseasonal,
seasonal, mesoscale-to-planetary-scale
organization
31
Outlines
1. Science Significance 2. WCRP Monsoon
Activities 3. Emerging Activities in the AA
Monsoon Region 4. Recommendations to the JSC 5.
Decision of WCRP/JSC (draft)
32
3. Emerging activities in the AA Monsoon region
Asian Monsoon Year (AMY08) The Asian Monsoon
Year (AMY08) (2008-2009) initiative is a
coordinated observation and modeling effort on
understanding the aerosol-cloud/radiation--hydrolo
gy cycle-circulation interaction and
ocean-land-atmosphere interaction of the Asian
monsoon system, and on improving monsoon
prediction.
33
History
  • The Asian Monsoon Year-2008 (AMY08) was
    proposed on the international workshop, Impact
    of elevated aerosols on radiation-monsoon-water
    cycle interaction in Xining in August, 2006.
  • The initiative of International Monsoon Year
    (IMY) was then developed to cover other monsoon
    activities.
  • The two proposals have obtained strong supports
    from both many scientists and CLIVAR and GEWEX of
    WCRP.
  • It has been agreed that a series of conferences
    or workshops need to be organized to coordinate
    the ongoing activities and to plan the AMY08.
    China is honored to host the workshop in the
    spring of 2007.

34
  • Some Related International Projects
  • AMY08
  • China AIPO,973 Programme Set
  • India STORM
  • India CTCZ
  • Japan JEPP/JAMSTEC
  • Japan MAHASRI (GEWEX)
  • Monsoon Asia Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific
    Research and Prediction Initiative
  • (WWRP) China SCHeREX
  • (WWRP) SoWMEX
  • (WWRP) US-TiMREX
  • Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX)
  • Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS)

35
The National Basic Research Program of China
--AIPO ProgramOcean-Atmosphere Interaction over
the Joining Area of Asia and Indian-Pacific
Ocean (AIPO) and Its Impact on the Short-Term
Climate Variation in China
  • Period 2006.09 - 2011.09
  • Chief Scientist Guoxiong Wu
  • Chief Scientist Assistant Jianping Li
  • http//973aipo.lasg.ac.cn/

36
1st subproject Western Pacific gyre interaction
between tropics and subtropics and its
relationship with the western Pacific anticyclone
?1?? ??
?3?? ?-?
2nd subproject Air-sea interaction over the
Indian Ocean and its impacts on the Asian monsoon
3rd subproject Air-sea coupling process over
Western Pacific-Eastern Indian Ocean warm pool
and its impacts on the climate over China
37
Supplementary observation experiments
??1?
??3?
  • http//973aipo.lasg.ac.cn/

38
Observation plan of air-sea interaction in the
AIPO Region
39
Air-sea flux tower at Xi-Sha Island
18?N?????18?N????,?????????????????????(3-4???)
40
China-Japan Cooperative Project On Weather
Disaster Reduction
41
SCHeREX Field Exp.
Huihe River
Central China
Yangtze Delta
Sorth China
42
Indian Monsoon Field Experiments and plans in
the Indo-Gangetic Plains
  • P. Sanjeeva Rao, B.D. Acharya and D. R. Sikka
  • Earth System Science Division
  • Department of Science and Technology
  • Technology Bhawan, New Delhi-110 016, India.
  • 40, Mausam Vihar, New Delhi-110051, India.
  • Acknowledgements All participating Scientists
    in Monsoon Field Campaigns
  • Dr.
    CBS Dutt, ISRO-GBP, Bangalore
  • Dr.
    K. Niranjan, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam
  • Dr.
    N. Singh, IITM, Pune.

43
Indian Monsoon Field Experiments and plans in
the Indo-Gangetic Plains
Severe Thunderstorms Observations Regional
Modeling (STORM)
Proposed for Implementation During 2006-09
44
(No Transcript)
45
Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) as a
component of coupled Land-Ocean-Biosphere-Atmosphe
re System 2007-2010
Indian Monsoon Field Experiments and plans in
the Indo-Gangetic Plains
46
  • During northern summer, the oceanic TCZ migrates
    seasonally over Indian sub-continent
  • and leads to formation of a semi-permanent
    system known as monsoon trough (CTCZ) by
    second fortnight of July.
  • The monsoon trough is controlled by two centers
    of lows

Seasonal low At western end over Pakistan
and adjoining area
Transient disturbances Form over the Head Bay
region and move across the trough.
47
? ? Project title
  • MAHASRI
  • Monsoon Asia Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific
    Research and Prediction Initiative
  • (Cf. MAHAGreat, SriSaint in Sanskrit)
  • Endorsed by GEWEX

48
Four Regional Components of MAHASRI
49
JAMSTEC/IORGC Palau
50
18 N
High Density Rain Gauges1
High Density Rain Gauges 2
Automatic rain gauges in Indochina
51
Tropical Meteorology Research Program (TMRP)
  • Objectives (CAS XIV, Cape town 2006)
  • Scientific knowledge on natural hazards
  • Natural disaster reduction through early warning
  • Focus
  • Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Monsoon
  • Priorities of NMHSs Transferring research into
    forecasting
  • Proposed Strategic Plan for TMRP/Monsoon
  • Climate Scales (global change down to
    intraseasonal) Support/cooperate with WCRP
    monsoon activities and regional climate centers
    (e.g., APCC) especially on impacts on local
    severe weather.
  • Weather Scales (mesoscale up to Intraseasonal)
    Foster international regional cooperation with
    emphasis on regional and local phenomena (e,g,
    effects of terrain). Top priority torrential
    rainfall, flooding.
  • Proposed Strategic Plan for TMRP/TC (relevant to
    YoTC)
  • Role of mesoscale convective systems in TC
    formation and structure change
  • Multiple-scale circulations in TC formation
    (easterly waves, monsoon trough variability, MJO,
    etc)

52
TMRP Existing and Planned Activities
  • International Workshop Series
  • IWTC, IWM, Monsoon Training workshops
  • WMO Monsoon Activity Centers
  • New Delhi (IMD), Kuala Lumpur (MMS), Beijing
    (CMA)
  • Joint Monsoon Forecast Meetings (CMA, KMA)
  • Research Field Programs- summer 2008
  • SoWMEX (Southwest Monsoon Experiment),
  • TiMREX (Terrain induced Monsoon Rainfall
    Experiment)
  • SCHeREX to study heavy rainfall and interaction
    of summer monsoon system and terrain around
    southern China, Taiwan and northern South China
    Sea,
  • Proposed program on enhanced observation of
    winter monsoon surges around South China Sea,
    starting winter 2008/09
  • TYS (Typhoon Structure) Field Experiment 2008 in
    conjunction with T-PARC (THORPEX-Pacific Asian
    Regional Campaign)

53
Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX)
EHP postulates a) an advance of the rainy
season in northern India/Napal region in
May-June b) In July-August, the increased
convection spreads from the foothills of the
HImalayas to central India, resulting in an
intensification of the Indian monsoon.
54
Modeling Study of Effects of Aerosols on
MonsoonWei-Chyung Wang, SUNY-AlbanyIn
colloaboration with Zhangqing Li and Guoxiong Wu
  • Using measurements in China to evaluate
    parameterizations for warm cloud (Cheng, Wang
    Chen, 2007 A modeling study of aerosol impacts
    on cloud microphysics and radiative properties.
    Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 133, 283-297) and
    mix-phase cloud (manuscript in draft).
  • Monsoon simulations with these parameterizations
    using regional climate model focusing on WRF
  • MM5--Gong Wang, 2007 SUNYA Regional climate
    model simulations of East Asia summer monsoon
    Effects of cloud vertical distribution on the
    energy balance at the top-of-the-atmosphere and
    on the surface. Terr. Atmos. Oceans (accepted
    for publication)
  • WRF--Zhang, Wang and Leung, 2007 The
    Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to
    summer climate variability over the contiguous
    United States. Part I Temperature and
    precipitation (manuscript in draft).

55
MONSOON ASIA INTEGRATED REGIONAL STUDY(MAIRS)
Study on the coupled human and environment system
in the monsoon Asia region.
56
Research Foci
  • Is the Asian monsoon system resilient to this
    human transformation of land, water and air?
  • Are societies in the region becoming more, or
    less, vulnerable to changes in the Asian monsoon?
  • What are the likely consequences of changes in
    the monsoon Asia region on the global system?  

57
?????? in monsoon Asia
coastal
mountain
Semi-arid
urban
58
Proposal
  • Asian Monsoon Year in 2008
  • --AMY08
  • China- AIPO 973 Programme Set
  • India- CTCZ
  • Japan- MAHASRI/GEWEX
  • AAMP/CLIVAR
  • WWRP/TMRP
  • South Korea-I.S.Kang
  • CEOP
  • MAIRS
  • Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX)

59
Schematic observation plan of atmosphere-ocean
interaction at the Asia-Indo-Pacific Region
Western Pacific Ocean
Kuroshio
SCS
NEC
NECC
SEC
ITF
Indian Ocean
60
Activities
  • Jan. 8-10 The 1st MAHASRI/AMY Workshop at Tokyo,
    Japan.
  • Jan. 22-25 GEWEX-SSG at Hawaii, USA.
  • Feb. 19-22 CLIVAR-AAMP at Hawaii, USA.
  • Mar. 26-30 28th Session of the WCRP-JSC in
    Zanzibar, Tanzania.
  • Apr. 23-25 Asian Monsoon Year (AMY08)
    International Workshop in Beijing, China.
  • Jul. 2-13 IUGG XXIV 2007 Session JMS011 on
    Monsoon system in Perugia, Italy.
  • Jul. 30-Aug. 4 AOGS, Thailand, etc.

61
U.N. International Year of Planet Earth
IPY
Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling and
Forecasting of The Tropics
AMY08 and IMY08/IMS
If implemented in 2008, this initiative could be
a WCRP contribution to the UN Year of Planet
Earth and compliment IPY.
62
Outlines
1. Science Significance 2. WCRP Monsoon
Activities 3. Emerging Activities in the AA
Monsoon Region 4. Recommendations to the JSC 5.
Decision of WCRP/JSC (draft)
63
4. Recommendations to the JSC
  • The regional perspective
  • strengthening coordination of Asian-Australian
    monsoon research
  • set up a short term task team (one year maximum)
    to prepare a 5-year implementation plan for an
    overall integrated programme of regional monsoon
    research
  • with an emphasis on the COORDINATION between
    other monsoon studies around the world and the
    WWRP and on the plans for AMY activities.
  • co-chaired by the CLIVAR (B. Wang) and GEWEX (J.
    Matsumoto) with representations from the JSC,
    CLIVAR and GEWEX Panels and each of the component
    activities including YOTC and representatives.
    (WOAPWMP?)

64
4. Recommendations to the JSC
  • The global perspective
  • (a) Carry out an assessment of capabilities in
    monsoon prediction. ( TFSP )
  • (b) Request CLIVAR and GEWEX to develop an
    overall implementation plan for WCRP activity
    aimed at more reliable predictions. Particular
    attention to be given to coordinating these
    activities with the YoTC and WWRP/TMRP. (WMP?)
  • (c) Confirm their request to GEWEX and CLIVAR to
    organise a further pan-WCRP monsoon workshop.
    (The lead will be T Yasunari).
  • (d) JSC form a task force to coordinate the IMY
    related international and national efforts
    (TF-IMY), consisting of relevant JSC members,
    monsoon experts, and CLIVAR and GEWEX contacts.
    (WOAP?)
  • Request CLIVAR and GEWEX to develop a plan for
    capacity building for the application of
    observations and predictions in monsoon regions
    for societal benefit.

65
Further Efforts needed for monsoon cross- cutting
studies
  • Integration of the existing national and
    regional/continental/oceanic monsoon studies is
    required.
  • A global monsoon system study has the potential
    to facilitate integration of the GEWEX and CLIVAR
    observational and modelling monsoon studies.
  • IMY08 initiative------- A WMO activity Initiated
    by WCRP---COPES!?

Prof. J. Shukla is going to provide more
suggestions
66
Outlines
1. Science Significance 2. WCRP Monsoon
Activities 3. Emerging Activities in the AA
Monsoon Region 4. Recommendations to the JSC 5.
Decision of WCRP/JSC (draft)
67
5. Decision on Monsoons by the JSC-28/WCRP (draft)
  • Main points of discussion are as follows
  • The idea of holding an IMY (suggested rename
    to International Monsoon Study 2007-2011) created
    interest and the support of the JSC.
  • a short term task team (one year) be
    appointed (Chairs B. Wang and J. Matsumoto) to
    develop a 5 year Implementation Plan, building on
    and integrating the existing plans for YOTC, the
    Asian Monsoon Year and to ensure the monsoon data
    sets are exchanged and appropriately archived and
    that the appropriate modelling studies are
    pursued.
  • The JSC group responsible for further
    oversight of Monsoons is Wu, Slingo, Yasunari,
    Vera, Ogallo

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5. Decision on Monsoons by the JSC-28/WCRP
Endorse the WCRP crosscutting Monsoon Initiative.
It will be led by CLIVAR and GEWEX with
participation of SPARC, CliC and WGNE and several
activities outside WCRP (particularly THORPEX).
Request CLIVAR and GEWEX to agree on how it will
be supervised and the development of an
implementation plan. The proposals for and
concepts of an AMY and an YoTC should be
considered as components of an IMS 2007-2011, a
5-year strategy of WCRP monsoon research, which
would include issues related to the East African
Monsoon, capacity building and application of
observations and predictions in monsoon regions
for societal benefit. A proposal has been
made regarding the name of this effort
International Monsoon Study (IMS).
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