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scenario of insect pests under climate change situation


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Title: scenario of insect pests under climate change situation

Scenario of Insect-pests Under Climate Change
Situation and Future Challenges in India
  • Speaker
  • Ajay Kumar
  • Seminar In Charge
  • Dr. Veer Singh
  • (Prof. Head)
  • Department of Entomology
  • College of Agriculture
  • Swami Keshwanand Rajasthan Agricultural
    University, Bikaner-334006

  • Introduction
  • What is climatic change?
  • Impact of climate change on human health
  • Impact of climate change on agriculture
  • Impact of climate change on insect pests
  • Effects of rising temperature on insect pests
  • Effects of climate change on insect pests
  • Effects of climate change on Insect migration
  • Effects of climate change on Insect biology
    population dynamics
  • Effects of environmental influence on diapause
  • Future challenges in India
  • Conclusion
  • Future thrust

  • Climate is a measure of the average pattern of
    variation in temperature, humidity, atmospheric
    pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric
    particle count and other meteorological variables
    in a given region over long periods of time.

Monthly global images from NASA Earth Observatory
What is the difference between global warming
and climate change?
  • is the increase of the Earths average
    surface temperature due to a build-up of
    greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
  • is a broader term that refers to long-term
    changes in climate, including average temperature
    and precipitation.

What is Climate Change?
  • Climate change refers to a change of climate that
    is attributed directly or indirectly by human
    activity that alters the composition of the
    global atmosphere and climate variability
    observed over comparable time periods.
  • Climate encompasses the long-run pattern of
    numerous meteorological factors (e.g.
    Temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure,
    wind, rainfall, sunshine etc.) in a given
    location or larger region. (Gutierrez et al.
  • Past some decades, the gaseous composition of
    earths atmosphere is undergoing a significant
    change, largely through increased emissions from
  • Energy sector
  • Industry sector
  • Agriculture sectors
  • Widespread deforestation.
  • Fast changes in land use.
  • Land management
  • practices.

  • These anthropogenic activities are resulting in
    an increased emission of active gases, viz.
    carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous
    oxide (N2O), popularly known as the greenhouse
    gases (GHGs).
  • Temperature increase to be between 1.1 C and 6.4
    C by the end of the 21st Century (IPCC, 2007).
  • The global warming is expected to lead to other
    regional and global changes in the
    climate-related parameters such as rainfall, soil
    moisture, and sea level.
  • Snow cover is also reported to be gradually

Radiation reflected back to space
Radiation gets trapped because of thickening of
Atmospheric layer
Green house effect
Sun rays
Green house effect
Causes of climate change
Natural Causes
Anthropogenic Causes
1) Green Houses Gases Carbon dioxide
(CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide
(NO2) Chloro floro carbons (CFCs)
Ozone (O3) Water Vapors (H2O) 2) Land Use
Change Deforestation Urbanization
  1. Continental drift
  2. Volcanoes
  3. The Earths Tilts
  4. Ocean Currents
  5. Intensity of Solar Radiation

Except one all other are MAN-MADE EMISSIONS
Effect of Climate Change
Rising Sea Level
Increased Temperature
Habitat Damage and Species Affected
Changes in Water Supply
Monthly average surface temperatures from
19611990. This is an example of how climate
varies with location and season.
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Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
  • Global climatic changes can affect agriculture
    through their direct and indirect effects on the
    crops, soils, livestock and pests.
  • The increase in temperature can
  • Reduce crop duration.
  • Increase crop respiration rates.
  • Alter photosynthate partitioning to economic
  • Affect the survival and distribution of pest
  • Hasten nutrient mineralization in soils.
  • Decrease fertilizer-use efficiencies.
  • Increase evapo-transpiration rate.
  • Insect-pests will become more abundant through a
    number of inter- related processes, including
    range extensions and phenological changes, as
    well as increased rates of population
    development, growth, migration and
  • An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide level
    will have a fertilization effect on crops with C3
    photosynthetic pathway and thus will promote
    their growth and productivity.

Framework of climate change impact, mitigation
and adaptation in agriculture
Mitigation Strategies to Climate Change
Methane emission from rice cultivation could be
alteration in water management, particularly
promoting mid-season aeration by short-term
drainage improving organic matter management use
of rice cultivars with few unproductive tillers,
high root oxidative activity and high harvest
  • Most efficient management practice to reduce
    nitrous oxide emission is site-specific,
    efficient nutrient management nitrification
    inhibitors such as nitrapyrin and dicyandiamide
  • Some plant-derived organics such as neem oil,
    neem cake and karanja seed extract which can also
    act as nitrification inhibitors.
  • Mitigation of CO2 emission from agriculture can
    be achieved by increasing carbon sequestration in
    soil through manipulation of soil moisture and
    temperature, setting aside surplus agricultural
    land, and restoration of soil carbon on degraded
  • Soil management practices such as reduced
    tillage, manuring, residue incorporation,
    improving soil biodiversity, micro aggregation,
    and mulching can play important roles in
    sequestering carbon in soil.

Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change
  • Developing cultivars tolerant to heat and
    salinity stress.
  • Resistant cultivars to flood and drought.
  • Modifying crop management practices.
  • Improving water management.
  • Adopting new farm techniques such as Resource
    Conserving Technologies (RCTs).
  • Crop diversification.
  • Improving pest management.
  • Better weather forecasting.
  • Crop insurance and harnessing the indigenous
    technical knowledge of farmers.
  • Developing Climate-ready Crops.
  • Diversification of crop and livestock varieties.


Impacts of Climate Change on Insect-Pest
Insects are the most diverse group of animals on
  • An estimated 6-10 million.
  • An estimated 570,000 species may go extinct by
    year 2100.
  • An annual loss of about Rs 8,63,884 million due
    to insect pests in India. (Dhaliwal et. al.,
  • Impact of climate change on agriculture has been
    the most important research topic and intensively
    debated in recent times.
  • The possible effects of changing climate on
  • Shift in species distribution range
  • Change in Phenology
  • Increase in population growth rate
  • Increase number of generations
  • Change in migratory behavior
  • Emergence of new pests or biotypes
  • Change in bionomics of insect
  • Change in feeding habits
  • Alterations in crop pest synchrony and natural
    enemy-pest interaction (Sutherst,1991 Root,2003)

  • Change in community structure and extinction of
    some species are also expected (Thomas,2004).
  • Methods including-
  • Surveys
  • Experimental approaches
  • Modelling approaches have been used to study the
    impact of climate change on pest abundance and
  • Surveys have been used to delineate climate
    change impacts on species distribution range,
    Phenology, migration and winter survival.
  • Experimental approaches are also done to check
    effect of temperature,CO2 and other climatic
    factors under controlled condition.
  • Modelling approaches allow investigating multiple
    scenarios and interactions.

  • Shift in Species Distribution Range
  • Based on a grid survey (10 km 10 km) in
    Britain, Hill et al. (2002) reported that four
    butterfly species had gone extinct at the
    southern margins of their distributions from low
    elevation and colonized high elevation areas,
    leading to a mean increase in elevation of 41 m
    between pre-1970s and 1999.
  • Regular survey in 11 km 12 km grids have
    revealed that in the Czech Republic, the average
    altitude for 15 butterfly species had increased
    significantly between 1950 and 2001 (Konvicka
    et. al.,2003).

  • Fine resolution survey in 1km x 1km grid survey
    in Britain have shown that four northen/montane
    butterfly Species had retreated uphill since 1970
    (Franco et. al.,2006).
  • Erebia epiphron retreated uphill by 130-150 m
    without any effect of habitat loss on its
  • E.aethiops and Aricia artaxerxes rettreated
    nothward by 70-100 km and showed combined impact
    of climate change and habitat loss.
  • Coenonympha tullia declined through habitat loss
    but no latiudinal or elevational shift.

2. Change in Phenology
  • Recent climate change has led to an ecological
    shift in time, with changes in species phenolgy.
  • Analysis of suction trap data has revealed that
    spring flights of peach potato aphid(Myzus
    persicae) started two week earlier for every 1c
    rise in tem. Of jan-feb.
  • Suction traps are being used to moniter aphids
    at the Rothamsted Insect Survey since 1964.

  • Increasing temperatures have also allowed a
    number of species to remain active for a longer
    period during the year or to increase their
    annual number of generation.
  • Under the AICRIP of ICAR collect light trap data
    round the year provide important information on
    the impacts of climate change impacts on rice

3.Insect Migration
  • Effect of climate change on insect migration can
    also be analyzed through light trap data and
    field observation.
  • Sparks,(2007) analyzed the impact of
    climate on migration of lepidopteron insect into
    England from south-west Europe.
  • The number migratory species was positively
    related to temperature anomalies averaged over
    March to July and it was suggested that every 1C
    increase temperature additional migration of
    14.42.4 species to England.

Migration of Dragon fly from South India Millions
of dragonflies are flying thousands of miles from
India to Africa in the insect world's longest
Potential migration of Desert Locust
  • Desert Locust are always present somewhere in the
    deserts between Mauritania and India.
  • If good rains fall and green vegetation develop,
    Desert Locust can rapidly increase in number and
    within a month or two, start to concentrate,
    gregarize which, unless checked, can lead to the
    formation of small groups or bands of wingless
    hoppers and small groups or swarms winged adults.
  • This is called an OUTBREAK and usually occurs
    with an area of about 5,000 sq. km (100 km by 50
    km) in one part of a country.

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Winter Mortality
Kiriti (1971) had examined the winter mortality
of adults of Nezara viridula in the late March at
16 fixed over wintering sites from 1962 to 1967
in Wakayama. He suggested that every 1C rise
in temperature decrease in winter mortality by
about 16.5
B. Experimental approaches
Figure Temperature ranges in relation to insect
development (LL Lower lethal, LT- Lower
threshold, UT- Upper threshold, UL- Upper lethal)
  • The potential impact of temperature rise on pest
    prevalence can be known by comparing the current
    and projected temperature conditions at a
    location with pests favourable temperature range

A pair of observations on temperature and the
corresponding development period can be used for
determining the threshold of development or lower
threshold (LT) as follows LT (T1D1 T2D2)
/ D1D2 where, T1 and T2 are two temperatures
and D1 and D2 are the corresponding development
Thermal constant for a particular development
stage can be calculated by summing the effective
temperatures for the entire duration of
development of a particular development stage and
consequently, the whole life-cycle.
Potential Increase in Number of Generations and
Density of Insects
  • Information on threshold of development and
    thermal constant can also be used to determine
    the impact of climate change on the number of
    generations and density of an insect species.
  • The number of generations per year is one of the
    most important parameters that affect the
    abundance of multivoltine species.
  • Yamamura and Kiritani (1998) have proposed an
    analytical method to estimate
  • the potential increase in the number of
    generations under global warming in temperate
  • dN dT
    (206.7 12.46 (mT0))/K
  • where,
  • dN Potential increase in the number of
    generations in a year under global warming
  • dT Increase in the annual mean temperature due
    to global warming
  • m Annual mean temperature (oC)
  • T0 Lower developmental threshold temperature
  • K thermal constant.

  • Direct Impact of Temperature on Insect-pest

Temperature Effect on Insect-Pests
Increasing Northward migration
Migration up elevation gradient
Insect development rate and oviposition
Potential for insect outbreaks
Invasive species introductions
Insect extinctions
Decreasing Effectiveness of insect bio-control by fungi
Reliability of economic threshold levels
Insect diversity in ecosystems
(Source Das et al., 2011 Parmesan, 2006 Bale
et al., 2002 Thomas et al., 2004
Effects of Temperature on Insect Biology
Common Name Scientific Name Temperature Range Biology Temperature Biology References
Argentine ant Lithepithema humile lt18C(64.4F) egg laying ceases 6C (42.8F) Activity ceases Ebeling 1975
Cat flea Ctenocephalides felis 130C (55.4F) egg hatch ( 6days) 35C (95F) egg hatch (36 hours) Silverman et al. 1981
House fly Musca domestica lt200C (68F) larval stage 6-8 weeks 21-32C (69.8-89.6F) larval stage 3-7 days Ehmann 1997
Indian meal Plodia interpunctella 200C (68F) moth life cycle(60days) 25C (77F) life cycle (30 days) Cox and Bell 1991
Yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti 25-29C (77-84.2F) optimum larval development 26C (78.8F) optimal adult temperature Fay 1964
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Effect of elevated CO2 on insects
  • Impact of CO2 on insect population via host
    plants can be studied through open top chambers
    (OTCs) and free air carbon dioxide enrichment
  • OTCs are essentially plastic enclosures placed
    around a sample of an ecosystem.
  • Air is drawn into a box by a fan, enriched with
    CO2, and blown through the chamber.
  • Open-top chambers are relatively inexpensive to
    build because they consist simply of an aluminium
    frame covered by panels of polyvinyl chloride
    plastic film.
  • The FACE technology facilitates modification of
    the environment around growing plants to future
    concentrations of atmospheric CO2 under natural
    conditions of temperature, precipitation,
    pollination, wind, humidity, and sunlight.
  • FACE field data represent plant responses to
    concentrations of atmospheric CO2 in a natural

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Free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE)
apparatus used for pure CO2 injection in the
  • Gao et al. (2008) used OTCs to examine
    interactions across three trophic levels, cotton
    (Gossypium hirsutum), aphid (Aphis gossypii) and
    its coccinellid predator (Propylaea japonica), as
    affected by elevated CO2 concentrations and crop
  • Two levels of CO2, viz. ambient (375 ppm) and
    double the ambient (750 ppm) were used.
  • Plant carbonnitrogen (CN) ratios, condensed
    tannin, and gossypol content were significantly
    higher while nitrogen-content was significantly
    lower in the plants exposed to elevated CO2
    levels compared to those exposed to ambient CO2.
  • Cotton aphid survival significantly increased
    with increased CO2 conc.
  • A. gossypii may become a more serious pest under
    an environment with elevated CO2 concentrations
    because of increased survivorship of aphid and
    longer development time of lady beetle.

  • Hamilton et al. (2005) used the FACE technology
    to create an atmosphere with CO2 and O2
    concentrations similar to those predicted for the
    middle of the 21st century.
  • During the early season, soybean grown under the
    elevated CO2 atmosphere had 57 more damage from
    the insects like Japanese beetle, potato
    leafhopper, western corn rootworm and Mexican
    bean beetle.
  • Measured increases in the levels of simple sugars
    in the soybean leaves might have stimulated the
    additional insect feeding.
  • Rao et al. (2009) have conducted feeding trials
    with two foliage feeding insect species, Achaea
    janata and Spodoptera litura using foliage of
    castor plants grown under four concentrations of
    CO2, viz. 700 ppm,550 ppm,350 ppm and ambient CO2
    in the open.
  • Compared to the larvae feed on the ambient CO2
    foliage, the larvae feed on 700 ppm and 550 ppm
    CO2 foliage exhibited higher consumption.
  • The 700 ppm and 550 ppm CO2 foliage was more
    digestible with higher values of approximate

Effect of elevated CO2 on insects
CO2 Effect on Insect-Pests
Increasing Food consumption by caterpillars
Reproduction of aphids
Effect of foliar application of Bacillus thuringiensis
Consumption and N utilization efficiency in pine saw fly and Gypsy moth
Larval growth in pine saw fly
Pupal weight in blue butterfly
Feeding and growth rate in tobacco caterpillar
Fecundity of aphids on cotton
Decreasing Insect development rates
Development and pupal weight in Chrysanthemum leaf miner
Response to alarm pheromones by aphids
Lipid concentration in small heath Parasitism
Effect of transgenics to Bacillus thuringiensis
Nitrogen based plant defence
Control of grain aphids with sticky traps
Climatic Change Insect outbreak
Climate Change Insect outbreak
Papaya mealy Bug(Paracoccus marginatus) 
  • Incidence and severity of papaya mealy bug,
    Paracoccus marginatus on cotton with its
    expanding host range across crops of industrial
    importance viz., cotton, mulberry, tapioca,
    papaya and jatropha was found in Tamil
  • The Papaya mealy bug has caused havoc in
    agricultural and horticultural crops, ever since
    its first report from Coimbatore in 2007 .
  • In 2009 it caused severe damage to economically
    important crops and huelosses to farmers in
    Coimbatore, Erode, Tirupurand Salem districts of
    Tamil Nadu.
  • In the same year, standing mulberry crop over
    1,500 hectares in Tirupura was destroyed by the
  • Recently noticed in Karnataka, certain parts of
    Andhra and Mallapuram and Thrissurdistricts of
    Tamil Nadu.

1 Adults of papaya mealy bug 2 on Congress
grass 3 on Papaya 4 on Cotton
Tobacco caterpillar (Spodoptera litura) 
  • There was an outbreak of S. litura on soybean in
    Kota region of Rajasthan and a loss of Rs 300
    crore was estimated.
  • The pest also struck in epidemic form on soybean
    in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra in August 2008
    and caused severe losses in yields to the tune of
    1392 crores.
  • As Bt cotton (BG-1) does not provide protection
    against the pest, it inflicts heavy losses in
    cotton. The intensity of  S.litura is likely to
    further increase under the potential climate
    change, as it has been found to consume more
    than30 per cent cotton leaves at elevated CO2
    levels (Kranthi et al., 2009).

Outbreak of S. litura were notice in major
sunflower growing areas of Central and Southern
India. During 2005, the outbreak of S. litura led
to more than 90 percent defoliation of sunflower
cultivar germplasm.
Sugarcane wooly aphid (Ceratovacuna lanigera)
  • Invasion of sugarcane woolly aphid, Ceratovacuna
    lanigera Zehntner in Maharashtra in 2002 is
    another example of pests reaction to climate
    change and getting mostly naturally regulated.
  • The aphid appeared in epidemic form in July, 2002
    in Sangli Province of Maharashtra. It spread to
    other parts of Maharashtra covering an area
    of 1.43 lakh ha by March, 2003 and caused upto
    30 losses in sugar yield.

Maruca vitrata (Geyer)
  • M. Vitrata is becoming predominant insect pest in
    recent years in all pigeon pea growing areas of
  • Maruca has emerged as one of the major constraint
    because of the coincidence of high humidity and
    moderate temperature in September October
    coinciding with the flowering of the crop in

Environmental influences on diapause
Influence of photoperiod on egg diapause in two
moth speices.
Influence of food quality and day length on
diapause behavior in the Colorado potato beetle.
The diapause cue may be experienced by the
previous generation, so the mother insect may be
cued to lay eggs that will diapause or not.
from Chapman 1971
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Effect of Rainfall
  • Distribution and frequency of rainfall may also
    affect the incidence of pests directly as well as
    through changes in humidity levels.
  • Armyworm, Mythimna separata, reaches outbreak
    proportions after heavy rains and floods.
  • Lever (1969) had analysed the relationship
    between outbreaks of armyworm and to a lesser
    extent Spodoptera mauritia (Boisd.) and rainfall
    from 1938 to 1965 and observed that all but three
    outbreaks occurred when rainfall exceeded the
    average 89 cm.

  • Aphid population on wheat and other crops was
    adversely affected by rainfall and sprinkler
    irrigation (Daebeler and Hinz, 1977 Chander,

In Sub-Saharan Africa, changes in rainfall
patterns are driving migratory patterns of the
desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria).
Helicoverpa armigera damage severity showed
higher November rainfall favoured higher
Effect of Climate on Pest Population via Natural
  • Temperature response of the parasitoids
    determines their success in controlling the pest
  • The egg predator Cyrtorhinus lividipennis of BPH
    had increased instantaneous attack rates with
    increasing temperatures until 32C.
  • At 35C the attack rate and handling time
    decreased drastically.
  • Natural selection will tend to increase synchrony
    between hosts and parasitoids.
  • Asynchrony may occur if host and parasitoid
    respond differentially to changes in weather

Effects of climate change in India
  • Agriculture
  • Up to 50 reduction in maize yields
  • 4-35 reduction in rice yields (with some
  • Rise in coconut yields (with some exceptions)
    reduced apple production
  • Negative impacts on livestock in all regions
  • Fresh water supply
  • High variability predicted in water yields (from
    50 increase to 40-50 reduction)
  • 10-30 increased risk of floods increased risks
    of droughts
  • Forests and natural ecosystems
  • Increased net primary productivity
  • Shifting forest borders, species mix, negative
    impact on livelihoods and biodiversity
  • Human health
  • Higher morbidity and mortality from heat stress
    and vector/water-borne diseases
  • Expanded transmission window for malaria

Future challenges in India
  • New pest outbreak.
  • Emergence of new races or biotypes.
  • Increase in pest population density .
  • More damage by insect pest.
  • Secondary pests emerges as major pest and cause
    more damage.
  • Sap sucking pests like aphids, jassids, thrips
    and whiteflies are major pests and economically
  • There is a decline in the pest status of
    bollworms the sap feeders, viz. aphids, jassids,
    mirids and mealy bugs are emerging as serious
    pests (Vennila, 2008).
  • There are indications of shift of insect pests of
    plantation crops to new crops and new areas.
  • Tea mosquito bug, Helopeltis antonii Signoret is
    a serious constraint in cashew (west
    coast-Kerala, Karnataka, and east coast-Tamil

Adaptation Measure for Climate Change
  • Integrated pest management
  • Using available early warning system for insect
  • Biological control measures.
  • Utilization of indigenous traditional knowledge
    base for Pest control.
  • Soil solarization technique.
  • Breeding for pest, disease and drought resistance
  • Careful tracking of geographical distribution of
  • Phytosanitary regulations to prevent or limit the
    introduction to risky insect pest.

Future thrust
  • Current strategies for management need to
    modified accordingly.
  • Development and validation of weather based
    pest-disease forecasting models for Indian
    condition to serve as early warning systems.
  • Breeding for pest-disease tolerant cultivars
    needs to be initiated.
  • Studies needs to be initiated on changes in host
    physiology, pest life cycle and host pest
    interaction caused by changing climatic

  • The greatest challenge facing humanity in the
    coming century will be the necessity to double
    our global food using less land area, less water,
    less soil nutrients, droughts from global
  • The exact impacts of climate change on insects
    and pathogens are rather uncertain.
  • Climate change being is a gradual process will
    give us opportunities to modify our agricultural
  • Basics of IPM practices such as field monitoring,
    pest forecasting, record keeping, and choosing
    economically and environmentally sound control
    measures would helps in dealing with the effects
    of climate change.
  • Understanding how climate change will impact on
    various pests especially crop pests helps
    agricultural scientist to orient their research
    on various futuristic possibilities that can help
    in mitigating and adapting to menace of
    anticipated climate change.

Thank You
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