# Boulder Valley Relocalization - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 92
Title:

## Boulder Valley Relocalization

Description:

### How many miles per hamburger' can a person go? ... Denial and lack of foresight constitute a recipe for unnecessary catastrophe. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:92
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 93
Provided by: MichaelB173
Category:
Tags:
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Boulder Valley Relocalization

1
(No Transcript)
2
Boulder Valley Relocalization
3
The Energy Crisis
4
(No Transcript)
5
World Discovery, Production
6
ASPO View
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
BLACK GOLD
• 1 80,000 lb. truck 45,000 lbs. of freight
• 1 truck x 1 gallon of fuel 5 miles average (up
• 1 person with 1 garden cart 250 lbs/load/trip
• 1 person could manage 20 miles/day or two
loads/day (5 miles there, 5 miles back and
repeat)
• Conclusion to move 45,000 lbs., 5 miles up a
shallow grade, 250 lbs. at a time 90 days of
work (3 full months, no days off)
• (Note 5 months if you add the weight of the
truck.)

10
The True Value of Oil?
• One gallon of fuel today (Jan. 06)  2.50
• How many miles per hamburger can a person
go? 90 days of food to fuel one person _at_10/day
900.00
• The energy density in one barrel of oil is the
equivalent of eight people working full time for
one year.
• 8 x 16,000/yr. 128,000 or /42
gal.per.barrel 3,050/gal.

11
(No Transcript)
12
Ancient Sunlight
• 100 tons of ancient plant life is required to
create one gallon of gasoline.
• Over each year of our industrial age, humans have
required several centuries worth of ancient
sunlight to keep the economy going.
• The figure for 1997around 422 years of fossil
sunlightwas typical.

13
Developing Nations?
• China has 1.3 billion people, 20 percent of the
worlds population.
• India has 1.1 billion people, 17 percent of the
worlds population.
• What percentage of the worlds petroleum are they
entitled to?
• What percentage of the worlds petroleum do they
think they are entitled to?

14
• A third of humanity doesnt want to ride bikes
anymore. That has profound geopolitical
implications.
• Anne KorinInstitute for the Analysis of Global
Security

15
• Currently, the average American consumes 25
barrels of oil a year.
• In China, the average consumption is 1.3 barrels
per year in India, less than one.
• If we reduce our consumption by 80, we will
still be using oil at nearly 5x the rate of the
Chinese or Indians.

16
(No Transcript)
17
• Remember the end of cheap oil is not the sort of
problem you can solve. Its like growing old. You
cant solve that. However, you can choose to
respond respectfully, wisely and imaginatively to
it, so that even ageing can become a source of
unexpected riches.
• Richard Heinberg

18
(No Transcript)
19
• Budget deficits explode. Inflation rules. Stock
markets plunge. Houses foreclose. Great powers
clash. This may be our future if we do not take
more serious steps on energy than those offered
in the energy bill that President Bush recently
signed.
• Peak oil is coming, but country is
ill-prepared
• Houston Chronicle, Aug. 22, 2005

20
• The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns and
will be marked by the decline of oil and all that
depends on it, including financial capital. It
heralds the collapse of the present financial
system, and the related political structures I
am speaking of a second Great Depression.
• Colin Campbell, Ph.D.ASPO Conference 2003

21
• The world oil production peak represents an
unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak
havoc on national economies, topple governments,
alter national boundaries, provoke military
strife, and challenge the continuation of
civilized life.
• James Howard Kunstler
• The Long Emergency

22
• Oil depletion will hit us soon and hard.
Governments are ignoring the problem. Their lack
of action will make the coming disruption of the
worlds economy much worse than it needs to be.
It is too late to avoid hardship, even in rich
North America. The longer we avoid facing up to
the approaching conditions, the greater the
hardship will be.
• David M. Delaney
• What to Do in a Failing Civilization

23
• The world has never faced a problem like this.
Without massive mitigationthe problem will be
pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous
energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary.
Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
• The Hirsch ReportU.S. Department of
EnergyFebruary 2005

24
Peaking
• Its not just the availability of cheap fossil
fuels that is peaking.
• Our ability to use energy the way we have become
accustomed to is also peaking.

25
Peaking
• Economic growth
• Industrial civilization
• Food production
• Human consumption
• Fossil-fuel-dependent way of life
• Human population

26
DECLINE
• Economic growth
• Industrial civilization
• Food production
• Human consumption
• Fossil-fuel-dependent way of life
• Human population

27
(No Transcript)
28
• We have trouble visualizing decline as positive,
but this simply reflects the dominance of our
prior culture of growth The real issue of our
age is how we make a graceful and ethical
descent.
• David Holmgren

29
• Peaking is only a crisis if
• Weve ignored it
• Weve failed to plan for it
• Were not prepared for it at all

30
• Our only reasonable choice is to prepare together
for the long ride down the curve of an
energy-constrained future.

31
Gathering Storms, Growing Crises
• Resource depletion (esp. fossil fuels)
• Climate change/global warming
• Epidemic disease
• Water scarcity
• Monetary collapse ()
• Terrorism/war

32
• A State of Emergency
• All hands on deck!

33
Lessons from Katrina
• Optimism, hopefulness, faith in status quo are
inadequate strategies in the face of real
• Despite planning and preparation, those plans
failed.
• There was no Plan B.

34
Lessons from Katrina
• Denial and lack of foresight constitute a recipe
for unnecessary catastrophe.
• We cannot rely on government or industry to
events.
• Plan B is left to the publicthe responsibility
of we the people.

35
• Despite assurances of government and industry,
demand for petroleum is outstripping supply.
• There is no Plan B for this.

36
• With less than 5 of the worlds population, and
with only 2 of the worlds oil reserves, the
U.S. produces 8 of the worlds oil and consumes
25 global oil production, of which nearly 60 is
imported from foreign countries.
• Peak Oil ResolutionU.S. House of
RepresentativesOctober 24, 2005
• There is no Plan B for this, either.

37
• You know, what makes our economy grow is energy.
And Americans are used to going to the gas tank,
and when they put that hose in their tank, and
when I do it, I wanna get gas out of it. And when
I turn the light switch on, I want the lights to
go on, and I dont want somebody to tell me I
gotta change my way of living to satisfy them.
Because this is America, and this is something
weve worked our way into, and the American
people are entitled to it, and if were going to
improve our standard living you have to consume
more energy.
• Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa)

38
What We Know Now
• We must plan for an energy-constrained future.
• A culture of unbridled consumerism is
unsustainable and unethical.
• The age of cheap oil and cheap energy is ending,
and with it will end our current economic system.

39
What Few Know
• The oil production-refining-distribution
infrastructure is already stretched to near the
breaking point. There is no spare capacity any
disruptions could have far-reaching effects.
• Major shocks and disruptions are very likely to
develop in the near-term, long before global oil
supply has undeniably peaked.

40
What Few Know
• Significant shortfalls and outages will almost
certainly occur, and are likely to be painful,
chaotic, perhaps even locally catastrophic.
• Some analysts anticipate 5x-10x increases in oil
prices in the short-term.

41
• Whether peak oil arrives this year or next, or in
five or ten years, there is a high likelihood we
will experience serious regional emergencies
along the way.
• There is no Plan B.

42
Plan B
• Plan B can only realistically be constructed on a
community level.
• Community self-sufficiency must be the organizing
principlelocal energy, local food, local
economy.
• The alternatives (e.g., Last Man Standing,
Waiting for the Magic Elixir) are unsustainable.

43
• Will arise from industrial civilizations demand
for oil outstripping supply
• and the resulting relatively sudden collapse of
institutions, infrastructures, economies, and
the American way of life.

44
• If human civilization is to survive at all in the
context of freedom
• we can only do so as a community of self-reliant
communities
• who have adopted relocalization strategies as
ethical and evolutionary imperatives.

45
• Peak Oil is a defining moment for our species,
for our communities, and for each of us
individually.
• Our legacyand the future of life on our
planetwill be determined by how we respond to
the challenges and opportunities of Peak Oil/Peak
Energy.

46
• Responding to the challenge of Peak Oil is not
simply about changing lifestyles or becoming more
energy-efficient.
• It is about accepting greater responsibility,
moving from species adolescence to species

47
Childhoods End
• Let us give thanks for this extraordinary period
of human history we lived through. Let us
recognize that we are moving into a new phase of
history. Lets be brave and wise about it, and
prepare to move on.
• James Howard KunstlerThe Long Emergency

48
An appropriate response
• Power-down \ \ n. 1. the energy famine that
engulfed industrial nations in the early 21st
century
• 2. the deliberate process of cooperation,
contraction, and conversion that enabled humanity
to survive
• 3. a species-wide effort toward self-limitation

49
• Ultimately, personal survival will depend on
community survival.
• Richard Heinberg
• Powerdown

50
• A globalized growth economy, based upon a
culture of consumption, built on widespread
availability of cheap fossil fuels, destroys
community.

51
• The strategy of individualist survivalism will
offer only temporary and uncertain refuge during
the energy downslope. True individual and family
security will come only with community solidarity
and interdependence. Living in a community that
is weathering the downslope well will enhance
personal chances of surviving and prospering far
more than will individual efforts at stockpiling
tools or growing food.
• Richard Heinberg

52
• Whats at stake is human freedom.
• If we are dependent on distant sources/foreign
powers for our essential needs, we will have no
choice but to pay whatever price we must in order
to survive. This is how freedom can be sacrificed
for survival.
• The only viable alternative is to learn how to
meet our essential needs locally.

53
RELOCALIZATION
54
• Relocalization is the process of developing
community self-sufficiency in energy, food and
economy.
• With the energy crisis, relocalization has now
become not only necessary but our first and
foremost priority.

55
• There is a great need for a culture of guerilla
relocalizationa movement that would have as its
goal to partially prepare communities so that
they may coalesce more readily into autonomous
regions when the need becomes apparent.
• David M. DelaneyWhat to Do in a Failing
Civilization

56
PCI Relocalization Network
57
PCI Relocalization Network
• Relocalization will herald the creation (and in
some cases, re-creation) of locally self-reliant
communities that produce and consume largely
within the confines of their bioregion, but on a
far grander scale than examples from the
historical record.
• In the community-based model, stability will
only be achieved if neighboring communities are
also locally self-reliant.

58
• Strategic Planning
• like our lives depend on it!

59
(No Transcript)
60
Strategic Relocalization Planning
• Food Security
• Energy Security
• Economic Security
• Social Security
• Government/infrastructure/policy

61
Food Security
• Gardening (household, neighborhood, community)
• Permaculture training, planning, implementation
• Co-ops
• Farming/CSA

62
Energy Security
• Renewable energy resources
• Alternative fuels
• Alternative transportation
• Energy efficiency/design (homes and buildings)
• Emergency back-up systems

63
Economic Security
• Complimentary currency
• Local manufacturing
• Housing
• Raw Materials

64
Social Security
• Education/awareness
• Neighborhood/community organization
• Sharing resources
• Health care/medicine/psychospiritual
• Emergency planning
• Elderly population
• Clothing
• Recreation

65
Government/Infrastructure/Policy
• Community energy systems
• Water supply
• Waste management
• Land use
• Transportation
• Emergency management
• Building codes
• Zoning
• Growth management
• Law enforcement

66
Learning from other Communities
67
Willits Economic LocaLization (WELL)
• Energy Independence Project
• Willits Area Energy Inventory
• Willits Area Energy Independence Plan
• 100 energy independence by 2010
• 50 reduction of energy consumption
• 80 local employment by 2012

68
Willits Economic LocaLization (WELL)
• TAKING INVENTORY where we get to be detectives
and researchers, discovering what we already have
here and what resources we are starting with
• ENVISIONING THE FUTURE where we get to be
dreamers visionaries
• PLANNING THE TRANSITION where we get to be
artists architects of our future
• IMPLEMENTING THE PLAN where we get to be the
builders of our community

69
Willits Economic LocaLization (WELL)
• In a nutshell, we are using a community research
model. This works by grounding people in the
reality of the current system i.e., taking the
Inventory, as a first step towards building
relationships among themselves and the broader
community. Tackling questions about the present
should be easier and much less controversial than
questions about the future. We build confidence
and trust before doing the hard parts. By the
time we get to the Visioning, Planning and Action
stages we have developed skills, information and
relationships that will empower us to do
something as bold as changing the local culture.
This doesn't mean we don't have an initial, broad
vision established early on, such as creating a
sustainable, local economy and a life promoting
culture. It just means that we pause before
leaping to action to sort out what we have to
work with, and make ourselves stronger in the
process.

70
Tompkins County Relocalization
• Peak oil as a county disaster management
problem

71
Tompkins County Relocalization
• Transportation
• Emergency services
• Local food production
• Local food distribution
• Winter food supply
• Hunting
• Health care
• Education
• Employment and training
• Agriculture as a local industry
• Manufacturing as a local industry
• Heating
• Alternative sources of energy
• Water
• Waste disposal

72
Tompkins County Questions
• Knowing Our Limits
• What is the carrying capacity of Tompkins
Countys current agricultural base?
• What would the carrying capacity be if that base
included all the farmland not currently in
production and all the former farmland that has
been taken out of production?
• What would the steady-state carrying capacity of
the Countys existing and potential farmland be
if the County were closed to outside inputs of
cheap fertilizer and fuel?

73
Tompkins County Questions
• Urban Farming
• How can families living on the small, shaded lots
typical of houses in Ithaca create productive
gardens?
• What would be the optimum way to raise chickens
on those plots if the present ordinance
prohibiting the keeping of chickens were changed?
• Would it make sense for the city to plant fruit
trees? How could we ensure that those trees were
provided with specialized pruning, knowledge of
the diseases that afflict particular species, and
water at critical times?
• At what point will the need of city dwellers for
locally produced food overcome their aversion to
the mess made by the fruit and flowers dropped by
productive trees and the wildlife and bees they
attract?
• How do zoning laws need to change in order to
maximize the agricultural use of land in the
County that is now considered to be residential?

74
Tompkins County Questions
• Sustainability
• How much organic fertilizer (manure, compost)
will be needed to keep gardens productive if the
farms that can no longer afford synthetic
fertilizer use up all of the organic sources for
their own needs?
• How do we enable and encourage households to
compost all their garbage and grass clippings,
not as a trash abatement measure but rather as an
essential component of a sustainable food system?
• At what point do we start encouraging the use of
composting toilets?

75
Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan
76
Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan
• Food
• Youth and Community
• Education
• Housing
• Economy and Livelihoods
• Health
• Tourism
• Transport
• Waste
• Energy

77
Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan
78
City of Oakland
• Randy Hayes (founder of Rainforest Action
Network) was appointed Sustainability Director by
mayor Jerry Brown.
• Hayes is developing plans to make Oakland a
national leader in solar energy with the goal of
achieving 100 renewable generated electricity
within 25 years.
• Currently, Oakland California is debating a food
policy initiative that would mandate by 2015 the
growing within a fifty-mile radius of city center
of 40 percent of the vegetables consumed in the
city.

79
How Cuba Survived Peak Oil
• Cuba has disproved the myth that organic
agriculture cannot support a modern nation.
• Cubans converted the nation's agriculture from
high input, fossil fuel-dependent farming, to low
input, self-reliant, organic farming.
Permaculture is widely practiced.
• Urban gardens now produce 60 of the vegetables
consumed in all of Cuba.
• As declining fossil fuel production impacts
civilization, Cuba may find itself in a position
to help lead the world into sustainable
agriculture.
• Cuban agriculture experts are currently teaching
agro-ecological farming methods to visiting
farmers and agricultural technicians from
throughout the Americas (excluding the U.S.), and
elsewhere.

80
Boulder Valley Relocalization
• Local energy
• Local food
• Local economy

81
Relocalization Resource Groups
• The energy crisis
• Relocalizing energy/renewables
• Relocalizing food production/distribution
• Relocalizing manufacturing/employment
• Parallel economic infrastructure
• Transportation
• Health care
• Crisis preparedness
• Preparing our community, ourselves

82
Strategic Planning Process
• Understanding current reality
• Considering the options
• Creating an achievable vision, setting
inspirational goals
• Outlining principles and pathways making
recommendations/proposals
• Building a master plan
• Engaging the community

83
1. Understanding Current Reality
• Resource usage, patterns of consumption
• Resource potentials/inventory
• Local expertise
• Risks and vulnerabilities
• Evaluation and report

84
2. Considering the Options
• Creative brainstorming
• Scenario planning

85
3. Vision/Goals
• Creating an achievable vision
• Setting inspirational goals

86
Potential Goals?
• 50 reduction in energy usage
• 100 energy self-reliance
• 75 of food consumption from within 100 miles
• 80 local employment
• 75 of homes become net energy producers
• A response model for other communities

87
4. Principles and Pathways
• Formulating specific recommendations
• Developing concrete proposals

88
5. Master Plan
• Open source development
• Peer review
• The process demands that the contributions we
make be nothing less than our very best!

89
6. Engaging the Community
• Planning
• Implementation
• Building a sustainable relocalization movement
• Engaging other communities

90
Challenges/Opportunities
• We are not doing this only for Boulder Valley.
• Everything we learn, develop and decide will be
open, accessible, and shared.
• Relocalization has never been achieved.
• This may be the most important endeavor of our
lives.
• What would be the cost of failure?

91
(No Transcript)
92
Upcoming Events
• BVR Working Group meeting, March 6
• The Power of Community How Cuba Survived Peak
Oil, May 12/13 (Present Tense Films, Boulder
Theater)
• Documentary film and Salsa Dance!