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UNOCHA Report on Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Natural and ConflictRelated Hazards in


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Title: UNOCHA Report on Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Natural and ConflictRelated Hazards in

UN-OCHA Report on Risk Assessment and Mitigation
Measures for Natural- and Conflict-Related
Hazards in Asia-Pacific UNISDR 2009 Global
Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
  • Carl B. Harbitz
  • Norwegian Geotechnical Institute /
  • International Centre for Geohazards

Coastal and Climate Hazards ISDR-ESCAP
Consultation Meeting on Priorities for the Indian
Ocean and South-East Asia Bangkok 17-18 September
(No Transcript)
Natural and Conflict related hazards in
Asia-Pacific OCHA Project goals
  • Develop hazard maps that show geographical
    hotspot areas for single hazards and for
    multi-hazards on regional (sub-national) level,
  • Make estimates of the exposed population to
    selected hazards,
  • Develop index or indices that attempt to rank the
    countries in terms of risk level, and
  • Make recommendations for mitigation measures in
    terms of how vulnerability can be reduced and/or
    how coping capacity could be improved.

Loss of life from natural hazards in Asia
amounted 2/3 of the total global mortality due to
natural hazards 1980-2000 (adpc)
  • Earthquake is the most potentially dangerous
    natural threat in urban areas.
  • During the past few years, two of the most
    catastrophic earthquakes in history have occurred
    in the region covered by this study
  • Pakistan in October 2005
  • Sichuan, China in May 2008

Earthquake intensity map for Asia-Pacific derived
from the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program
GSHAP maps
GRUMP Population density (per km2) in the study
area in 2007
Population exposure to earthquake in Asia-Pacific

Hazard map for Asia Pacific
Tsunami hazard map for Asia-Pacific
gt10 m
5-20 m
Potential number of people exposed (2000)
Other natural hazards assessed
  • Earthquakes
  • Tsunamis
  • Floods (and storm surge)
  • Tropical cyclones
  • Landslides
  • Drought

Trends in Armed Conflict, 19462007
  • Armed conflict - State vs. state, or state vs.
    organized non-state organization
  • - Clearly stated issue of incompatibility
    (territory or government)
  • - At least 25 battle deaths in a calendar year

Likelihood of conflict prevalence
Civil conflict hazard map for Asia-Pacific
Asian countries accounted for 1/3 of all
battle-related casualties during the past 25
years (PRIO)
Sub-National Conflict Hazard
Map of coping capacity index for Asia-Pacific
  • Based on existing indicators and data
  • Combined CC index focused on factors that are
    consatnt across hazards at national level

Coping capacity was essential in designing the
risk mitigation strategies
Composite national risk indicator for earthquake,
cyclone, flood, landslide, tsunami, drought and
civil conflict
  • A risk indicator for each country was defined as
    a function of
  • Ratio of the exposed population to the total
    population for each hazard.
  • Ratio of fatalities caused by each hazard during
    the period 1980-2007 to the population exposed to
    that hazard.
  • Coping capacity index.
  • Importance factors assigned to each hazard based
    on judgement.

Risk indicators for ten countries in Asia-Pacific
Risk indicators for ten countries in Asia-Pacific
Percent contribution of different hazards to risk
Recommendations for risk mitigation measures
  • Pillar 1 Identify and locate the risk areas, and
    quantify the hazard and the risk
  • Pillar 2 Implement structural and non-structural
    risk mitigation measures, including early warning
  • Pillar 3 Strengthen national coping capacity
  • Should focus on institutions dealing with risks
    and disaster situations in the following four
    policy fields
  • Risk assessment and communication
  • Risk mitigation (laws, rules and interventions to
    reduceexposure and vulnerability to hazards)
  • Disaster preparedness, warning and response
  • Recovery enhancement

Concluding Remarks
  • A multi-hazard risk indicator should somehow
    account for the various components of risk
  • How often does a particular hazard occur?
  • What is the intensity or magnitude of the
    expected hazard?
  • How important is a particular hazard compared to
    other hazards being considered?
  • Who or what are the elements at risk?
  • What is the vulnerability of the elements at
  • How well can the community cope with the
  • It seems that it is feasible to develop
    meaningful multi-hazard relative risk
    indicator(s) on national level. Doing the same on
    sub-national level would be more challenging.

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The report is presented in three different
formats for different users
  • Summary and Recommendations document
  • For governments, international organisations,
    policy makers
  • Main body Seven chapters that provide technical
    information for disaster risk reduction policy
    makers, practitioners and researchers
  • Identifies the risk includes causes, trends,
    effects, means. Focus DRR
  • Chapter 2 Seven hazards, multi-hazard and risk
  • NGI Landslides and tsunamis
  • Appendices available in CD-Rom
  • For specialists encourages new research
    feedback to future iterations of the ISDR Global
    Assessment Report

Background for NGIs collaboration with UN/ISDR
  • The two projects shared data and models
  • UNEP / GRID-Europe did the cyclone and flood
    hazard assessment for NGIs project for OCHA
  • NGI did the landslide and tsunami hazard
    assessment for the Global Assessment Report

Landslides Landslide risk is often
underestimated because landslides are usually not
separated from other natural hazard triggers in
natural disaster databases.
Landslide hazard index
  • Defined using six parameters
  • Slope
  • Geological condition
  • Soil moisture condition
  • Vegetation cover
  • Precipitation
  • Seismic condition
  • Population data for exposure
  • Mortality data for risk

Landslide exposure and risk
  • Observed mortality in landslides triggered by
    high precipitation is approximately six times
    higher than in landslides triggered by
  • The risk model therefore focuses on precipitation
    triggered landslides.
  • Exposure has been calculated for both kinds of

Landslide risk
Overview of approach for tsunami hazard assessment
  • Establish the tsunami hazard based on today's
  • Share information with other leading
    international organisations
  • Perform computations in hotspot areas where
    information is lacking
  • Present
  • Shoreline distribution of wave heights
  • Shoreline distribution of exposed population
  • Total exposed population country by country

Global Tsunami Hazard
Population exposed to Tsunami Risk
World-wide, about 14 mill. people are exposed to
tsunami risk
Mortality risk accumulated for tropical cyclones,
floods, earthquakes, and landslides
Drought risk is a major gap (mortality risk is
underestimated in some regions)
Investing today for a safer tomorrow
  • Conclusions and recommendations
  • The imperative for urgent action- A 20-point
    plan to reduce risk
  • Global action to reduce risk- climate change
    mitigation and trade policy
  • Policy frameworks for risk reducing development-
    addressing the underlying risk drivers
  • An approach based on partnership- support
    ongoing initiatives
  • Effective risk reduction governance- Hazard
    monitoring, information, cost-benefit analyses,
    implementation, EWS, risk transfer/insurance
  • Investing today for a safer tomorrow- cost of
    risk-reducing development, additional costs of
    risk reduction considerations into investment,
    costs of building the risk reduction governance
    frameworks and the capacity

  • UNISDR 2009 GAR report on disaster risk
  • CD Appendices, quantitative data used
  • UN-OCHA reportNGI (2009) Risk assessment and
    mitigation measures for natural and conflict
    related hazards in Asia-Pacific.NGI report no.

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