Book Industry TRENDS 2007

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Book Industry TRENDS 2007 BookExpo America
2007 Working to create a more informed,
empowered, and efficient book industry supply
chain.
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Agenda

• Introduction
• Methodology and Sources of Data
• Key Highlights and Findings
• Questions and Answers

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Introduction

• Introduction
• Michael Healy, Executive Director
• Book Industry Study Group, Inc.

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About BISG

• Industrys leading trade association for policy,
  standards and research.
• Develops and maintains standards that enable
  effective communication among all segments of the
  industry supply chain.
• Conducts research and gathers data on issues
  affecting the book industry as a whole.

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BISG Mission

• Working to create a more
• informed, empowered, and efficient
• book industry supply chain.

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How We Accomplish Our Mission

• Provide a forum for the book industry
• Policy development
• Best working practices
• Consensus on industry issues
• Develop standards for effective industry supply
  chain communications
• Conduct research on issues affecting the book
  industry

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Research Publications
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Book Industry TRENDS 2007

• The only complete view of todays book-publishing
  industry
• More than 250 pages of tables, charts, and
  analysis
• An up-to-date report that covers the growing
  segment of small to mid-size publishers

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Methodology and Sources of Data

• Methodology and Sources of Data
• Jeff Hayes, Vice President General Manager,
  InfoTrends
• Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for
  Publishing Research
• Robert Wharton, Senior Researcher, Institute for
  Publishing Research

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Tracking Small Publishers

• Most book publishing revenue data is on large
  publishers
• Significant publishing activity by smaller
  entities
• Self-publishers Trade Associations
• Small businesses Corporations
• Specialty publishers Non-profit organizations
• Need new primary research to quantify
• Concerns about generating reliable data

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The Long Tail of Book Publishers
Annual book publishing revenue
Rank Order
Source BISG Under the Radar Research
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The Long Tail
Annual book publishing revenue
Rank Order
Source BISG Under the Radar Research
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The Long Tail
Annual book publishing revenue
Rank Order
Source BISG Under the Radar Research
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Profile of Small Publishers (lt50M)
Type of Publisher
Category of Books Published
11.9 Educational institution Corporation Associat
ion Retailer Distributor Printer Government
N 1117
Percentage of Publishers
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Small Publisher Key Research Findings

• 53 earn revenue from non-book activities
  (e.g. speaking, seminars, consulting, editing,
  distribution, education)
• Nearly 90 use Internet for marketing and/or
  sales
• Growing portion of revenue from paperback
  (73.7 vs. 71.6)
• Lower average selling prices in 2006 vs. 2005
  (11.21 vs. 13.46)
• Getting retailers to carry books and production
  costs are top concerns
• Used books, competition, and returns are not of
  high concern

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Small Publisher Market Projections
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Year Over Year Comparisons

• Statistical variance is an issue
• Most increase from 1M to 49M publishers

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Integrating Small Publisher Projections

• Analyzed survey data by key segments
• Format
• Category
• Channel
• Foreign vs. domestic
• Additional analysis to incorporate into TRENDS
  2007
• Eliminate double counting
• Apportion to TRENDS segments

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Additional Data Sources

• U.S. Department of Commerce
• Census Bureau
• International Trade Administration
• Monthly Retail and Book Store Data
• The Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
• U.S. Department of Education

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Additional Data Sources

• Congressional Budget Office
• Annual Reports 10-Ks
• Wall Street Reports
• Industry Reporting Services
• Major Publications
• Trade Associations
• R.R. Bowker

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Additional Data Sources

• Financial Reporting Services
• Data from NBER, Federal Reserve, etc.
• Discussions with Industry Experts
• Discussions with Book Publishers
• Discussions with Academic Researchers

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ARIMA Models

• Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages
• Time series forecasting tool
• Uses lags and shifts in historical data to
  uncover patterns and predict the future

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Key Highlights and Findings

• Key Highlights and Findings
• Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for
  Publishing Research

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Summary Data
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Adult Trade
For additional statistics from Book Industry
TRENDS 2007, please visit http//www.bisg.org/publ
ications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of
the publication.
26
Juvenile Trade
For additional statistics from Book Industry
TRENDS 2007, please visit http//www.bisg.org/publ
ications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of
the publication.
27
Mass Market Paperback
For additional statistics from Book Industry
TRENDS 2007, please visit http//www.bisg.org/publ
ications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of
the publication.
28
Religious
For additional statistics from Book Industry
TRENDS 2007, please visit http//www.bisg.org/publ
ications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of
the publication.
29
Professional Publishing
For additional statistics from Book Industry
TRENDS 2007, please visit http//www.bisg.org/publ
ications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of
the publication.
30
College Textbooks
For additional statistics from Book Industry
TRENDS 2007, please visit http//www.bisg.org/publ
ications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of
the publication.
31
Elhi
For additional statistics from Book Industry
TRENDS 2007, please visit http//www.bisg.org/publ
ications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of
the publication.
32
University Press
For additional statistics from Book Industry
TRENDS 2007, please visit http//www.bisg.org/publ
ications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of
the publication.
33
Standardized Tests
For additional statistics from Book Industry
TRENDS 2007, please visit http//www.bisg.org/publ
ications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of
the publication.
34
Thank you

• Questions?
• For more information
• Book Industry Study Group, Inc.
• [phone]
• www.bisg.org